Market Studies

 

Low Carbon Fuels 2040:
Emerging Markets for SAF & RD

Available July 2024

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Summary and Table of Contents 

SUMMARY

Low Carbon Fuels 2040: Emerging Markets for SAF & RD provides detailed case studies, updates and analysis of the key producers and developers participating in Renewable Diesel projects and Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) projects in the USA, Canada, Europe, Asia, and in South America.

 

Large Scale Renewable Diesel/SAF Refineries Emerge Rapidly in Europe, Asia, Latin America
One key trend of larger-scale, commercially available renewable diesel retrofits of large refineries (resulting in the first round of sustainable aviation fuels production) is now being accompanied by the emergence of smaller scale, localized, sustainable aviation refineries. 

 

Smaller-Scale SAF Refineries, Emerging Technologies, Bio-Intermediates  
Another key trend is the fast growth and volume of projects in sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), particularly in new countries, emerging markets (Latin America, Asia, Middle East, Australia, Canada), and in technologies such as Power-To-Liquids (PTL) for producing synthetic fuels, and Fischer-Tropsch technologies for processing non-traditional feedstocks (agricultural, forestry, municipal waste, CO2 for PTL). These projects are covered in detail, via case studies, to illuminate these emerging markets, technologies, and feedstocks.

 

Project Announcements Expand Via Approved RD, SAF Technology Pathways:
These major trends in up-grading feedstocks are via:

a) Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), the first platform for Sustainable Aviation fuels (#SAF)

b) various feedstocks (ethanol, wood, carbon) via Alcohol-To-Jet technologies (ATJ),

c) various feedstocks (wood, MSW) via Fischer-Tropsch technologies (FT), and

d) hydrogen, biogenic carbon via Power to Liquids technologies (PTL)

The rapid proliferation of these projects in the race for commercialization is profound.  Together, these approved pathways for future development have collectively spawned over one hundred new  renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuels SAF projects.

Specialty Feedstocks for RD, SAF Emerge in Growing Numbers
This growing trend of smaller, localized plants favors low-carbon feedstocks in geographically advantaged areas that can benefit the smaller-scale RD/SAF integrated refinery. Feed stocks such as:

* non-edible corn (Gevo, South Dakota)
* cellulosic sugars and bagasse (GranBio, Brazil)
* wood waste (Lanzatech, Georgia and Strategic Biofuels/Velocys, Lousiana)

* crude tall oil (Fintoil, Finland)
* forestry tree oil (St1, UPM, Neste)
* raw tall oil (Preem, Sweden)
* pongamia (Omega Green Paraguay)
* castor oil (Eni Italy)
* specialty carinata (multiple airlines)
* purpose grown penny cress (REG)
* cover cress (R&D initiatives)
* municipal solid waste (Fulcrum)
* Distiller’s Corn Oil (DCO with Darling and Valero JV Diamond Green Diesel, REG Geismar, and several others)
* forestry products (Louisiana Green Fuels)
* Cielo Energy in Canada (sawdust, plastics, tires, MSW, construction debris)
* circular feedstocks (palm waste and UCO at Neste, Singapore refinery) and
* smaller, non-commodity traded, feed stocks and specialty markets with higher values

 

Partnerships for Progress
Another key finding in Low Carbon Fuels 2040: Emerging Markets For SAF & RD is a growing number of companies participating in dedicated alliances and joint venture partnerships for (upstream) feedstocks and (downstream) offtake agreements to accelerate timelines for the commercialization of these projects.

 

Emerging Market, Technology and Feedstock Trends:
On the horizon, a few dozen projects are aiming to fill a future feedstock gap in HEFA/HVO or hydroprocessing routes for vegetable oils/fats at traditional petro and renewable diesel refineries now seeing tightness in feedstock markets.  These emerging players are revising feedstocks (corn stover, ethanol, wood waste) and technologies (dehydration, carbon capture, hydrogen, solar, wind, anaerobic digestion) in various integrated bio-refinery formats. 

Some of these include: 

a) low-carbon Ethanol for production and use in Alcohol-To-Jet markets

b) Bio-Intermediates (aka BioCrude) via pyrolysis of wood, dehydration of alcohols, FT wax

c) Carbon Capture (CCS, CCR) from bio-refineries, renewable natural gas (RNG) 

d) Renewable Hydrogen and BioGenic Carbon for Power-To-Liquids projects

.

Forecasts and Scenarios for Growth
The Low Carbon Fuels 2040: Emerging Markets for SAF & RD study includes a comprehensive analysis of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)  producers, and provides a forward looking set of forecasts for market growth, feedstock initiatives, technology deployment for renewable diesel & SAF prospects from the year 2024 to 2040.

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

1. GLOBAL DEMAND DRIVERS FOR COMMERCIALIZING LOW-CARBON SUSAINABLE AVIATION (#SAF) AND RENEWABLE DIESEL PROJECTS
1.1 New GHG and Low-Carbon Fuels Regulations Bring New Opportunities

1.1.1 Clean Cities Transport Initiative Opportunities in U.S., Europe, Americas, Asia

1.1.2. Sustainable Shipping Initiatives for IMO (U.N.) 2020 Regulations

1.1.3 Feedstock Opportunities to Produce Low-Carbon Fuels for Emerging Markets with LCFS, CFS Targets

1.1.4 Low Carbon Fuel Regulations Bring Disruptive Challenges, Opportunities to Producers

1.1.5 Change and Transition from 2023 Targets to 2030 GHG Targets

1.1.6 New GHG Targets Bring Opportunities for Renewable Diesel (California, Oregon, Washington, Canada, EU, Asia, )

1.1.7 New GHG Regulations Bring Opportunities to Refiners, Blenders, Obligated Parties

 

#SAF – AVIATION REGULATIONS, TARGETS SPAWN NEW OPPORTUNITIES, CHALLENGES
1.2 Global Policies and Targets – U.N. and C.O.R.S.I.A

1.3 National Aviation Policies and Targets
– US RFS, IRA, 3 Billion Gallon Target by 2030
– US States: California LCFS, Oregon CFS, Washington CFS
– Canada CFS

1.4 C.O.R.S.I.A’s member countries & targets

1.5 Regional Aviation Policies and Targets – EU RED2, Fit for 55

1.6 EU ReFuel Plan: Highlights
(approved by EU parliament in Sept. 2023, awaiting approval by country). 


Targets: 2023 Binding Targets –  emissions or lower CO2 emissions than fossil fuel kerosene.

Airports: Fuel suppliers must ensure that 2% of fuel made available at EU airports is SAF in 2025, rising to 6% in 2030, 20% in 2035 and gradually to 70% in 2050.

Synthetic Fuels: Synthetic fuels are made using captured CO2 emission. From 2030, 2,2% of fuels must also be synthetic fuels, rising to 35% in 2050.

 

2. RENEWABLE DIESEL & SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS
The Low Carbon Fuels 2040: Emerging Markets for SAF & RD.study also focuses on Sustainable Aviation Fuels in detail, providing case studies of producers and projects in the race for commercialization via low-carbon feedstocks, technology pathways, partnerships, investors, and off-takers.

 

2.1 MARKET DRIVERS: ACCELERATORS FOR SUSTAINABLE AVIATION GROWTH
2.1.1 Regulatory Drivers, Targets, for GHG Targets
2.1.2 Net-Zero Targets for GHG Reduction
2.1.3 Volumetric Targets for SAF Production
2.1.4 Market Pull: Regulations, Demands for Low-Carbon Intensity Fuels
2.1.5 Market Push: Feedstock Producers, Associations

 

2.2 EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES FOR FEEDSTOCKS, INTERMEDIATE PARTNERSHIPS
2.2.1 Increase in Renewable Diesel Capacity – Feedstock Challenges for FOGs Markets

2.2.2 Increases in Renewable Diesel Capacity – Opportunities for Bio-Intermediates, Partnerships, Arriving

2.2.3 Expansion of Advanced Alcohols-To-Jet Fuels in Brazil, US via ATJ-Ethanol Producers Partnerships

2.2.4 Feedstock Forecast: Review of Hundreds of Corn-Ethanol and Sugar-Ethanol Producers for ATJ Intermediates

2.2.5 Technology Scenarios: Review of Ethanol Dehydration Technologies, Suppliers, Partnerships for Growth

2.2.6 Hydrogen Development Scenarios: Growth Markets for Hydrogenating Feedstocks and Intermediates

2.2.7 Bio-Genic Carbon Capture Growth, Partnerships, Case Studies: Pathways into Lower-CI, Higher ROI Fuels

2.2.8 Lower-CI, Advanced Alcohols / Ethanol, Bring Feedstock Opportunities (Ethanol-ATJ-SAF Intermediates)

 

2.3 EXAMPLES OF TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS, FEEDSTOCKS AND PROJECTS FOR SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS & RENEWABLE DIESEL
2.3.1 Examples of: Up-Grading Next Gen Feedstocks (Wood, Ag Residues, Waste)

2.3.2 Fischer-Tropsch Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for Processing

2.3.3 Pyrolysis Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for Processing

2.3.4 Hydro-Thermal Liquefication Demonstration Level Producers

2.3.5 Technology Providers and Producers of Intermediates (Biocrude, ATJ) for Up-Grading into Renewable Diesel & Jet Fuel via Fischer-Tropsch, Pyrolysis, and other TRL Level 5+ Players

2.3.6 Examples of Biocrude & Syncrude Intermediate Up-Grading to Renewable Diesel and SAF

2.3.7 Fischer-Tropsch Gasification (FT) examples from Velocys, Fulcrum

2.3.8 Hydro-Thermal Liquefication (HTL) examples from ReadiFuels/ARA

2.3.9 ATJ Alcohol To Jet (ATJ) process examples via Dehydration, Hydrotreating, Isomerization, Refining from Lanzatech, Gevo, Byogy, Vertimass

3. BUSINESS CASE STUDIES

Low Carbon Fuels 2040: Emerging Markets for SAF & RD. provides detailed case studies and analysis of the key producers and developers participating in the development of Sustainable Aviation Fuels projects in North America, Canada, Europe, Asia, and South America.

AMERICAS: CASE STUDIES OF PRODUCERS AND PROJECTS BY COUNTRY AND TECHNOLOGY
Each producer case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status, Production Capacity, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Expansion Plans

USA: DEMAND DRIVERS, LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS
3.1 U.S. National Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program and Targets 2005-2022
3.2 California Low Carbon Fuel Standard 2012-2030. Target = 20% by 2030
3.3. Oregon Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 10% by 2025, TBD by 2030
3.4 Washington Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 8.5% by 2030
3.5 British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 20% by 2030
3.6 Neighboring Canada’s Expected Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 13.9% by 2030
3.7 US States with Volumetric Targets (Minnesota, Iowa, Texas, etc)

 

3.3 Case Studies of HVO/HEFA Producers
Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil / Hydro-processed Esters & Fats
(Note: Many Sustainable Aviation Fuels options are in development by Renewable Diesel facilities)

3.2.1 Phillips 66, Rodeo, California
3.2.2 World Energy, Paramount, California
3.3.3 Next Renewable Fuels, Port westward, Oregon
3.3.4 AIC Energy, Williams Country, North Dakota
3.3.5 Montana Renewables, Great Falls, Montana
3.3.6 Readifuels, Sioux Center, IA, USA
3.3.7 Phillips 66, Rodeo, California, USA
3.3.8 Readifuels, Hull, Iowa
3.3.9 PBF Energy – Chalmetter Refinery, Chalmette, LA
3.3.10 CVR Energy Inc. – Coffeyville, KS
3.3.11 Covenant Energy,Lloydminister, SK
3.3.12 CVR Energy – Coffeyville, Coffeyville, KS
3.3.13 Gron Fuel LLC, Baton Rouge, LA
3.3.14 Vertex Energy, Mobile, AL
3.3.15 Braya Renewable Fuels, NF
3.3.16 Martinez Renewables, Martinez, CA, USA
3.3.17 Diamond Green Diesel, Texas, Port Arthur, TX
3.3.18 Bakersfield Renewable Fuels, CA, USA
3.3.19 Heartwell Renewables – Love’s-Cargill, Hastings, NE
3.3.20 New Rise Renewables, Las Vegas, NV
3.3.21 Chevron – El Segundo, CA
3.3.22 World Energy, Houston, Texas, USA
3.3.23 Fidelis New Energy, Baton Rouge, Louisiana,
3.3.24 Indaba Renewable Fuels, California
3.3.25 World Energy, Paramount, California

3.4 CANADA
LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS & PROGRAMS
3.4.1 Canada’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard Target = 13.9% by 2030
3.4.2 British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 20% by 2030

RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS AND CASE STUDIES
3.4.3 Covenant Energy, Canada
3.4.4 Tidewater, Canada
3.4.5 Cielo Alberta, Canada
3.4.6 Ensyn Ontario
3.4.7 Ensyn Cote Du Nord Quebec
3.4.8 Imperial Oil-Exxon, AB, Canada

3.4.9 Parkland Corp, BC, Canada
3.4.10 Covenant Energy, Canada
3.4.11 Green Energy Transformation, Canada

3.5 LATIN AMERICA
3.5.1 Omega Green Biofuels,  Paraguay
3.5.2 Petrobras, Cubatao, Brazil
3.5.3 SGP Bioenergy, Panama
3.5.4 Brasil Biofuels, Manaus, Brazil
3.5.6 Bio D, Columbia

3.6 Case Studies of Fischer-Tropsch (FT) Projects & Feedstocks
3.6.1 Louisiana Green Fuels – Strategic Biofuels, USA
3.6.2 DG Fuels, Maine, USA
3.6.3 Fulcrum Bioenergy, Indiana, USA
3.6.4 Castlerock Green Energy,  Washington, USA
3.6.5 Alder Fuels, USA
3.6.6 Aemetis, California, USA 
3.6.7 USA Bioenergy, Texas, USA
3.6.8 Velocys Bayou Fuels, Mississippi, USA

3.7 Case Studies of Alcohol-To-Jet (ATJ) Projects
3.7.1 LanzaJet, Georgia, USA
3.7.2 Lanzatech-SkyNRG (LOTUS), Oregon, USA
3.7.3 Gevo-Net Zero 1, South Dakota, USA
3.7.4 Lanzajet-Marquis, Illinois, USA
3.7.5 Green Plains, USA
3.7.6 Summit Agricultural, USA
3.7.7 Gevo, Texas USA

3.8 Case Studies of Power-to-Liquids (PTL) Projects 
Hydrogen & Carbon Dioxide Mix via Methanol Synthesis and Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis
3.8.1 HIF Global (Porsche, Siemens, Bechtel, Topsoe), Texas, USA

3.8.2 DG Fuels, Louisiana, USA
3.8.3 Dimensional Energy,  Arizona, USA
3.8.4 Dimensional Energy-Heliogen, California, USA
3.8.5 SAF+ Consortium, Canada

 

4.  EUROPE: CASE STUDIES OF PRODUCERS, PROJECTS
Each producer case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status, Production Capacity, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Expansion Plans

4.1 EUROPE: DEMAND DRIVERS
4.1.1 Renewable Energy (RED2) Directives and Targets to 2030, by Country

4.2.2 Current EU Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels Production Based on COP Targets for 2030

4.3.3 Market Size and Share of European Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels Production by Project

4.4.4 Rapid Expansion of Europe Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production and Sustainable Aviation (#SAF) Projected Plans


4.2 Case Studies of HVO/HEFA Producers
Hydrogenated Vegetable Oil / Hydro-processed Esters & Fats
4.2.1 Total, La Mede, France

4.2.2 Total Energies, Grandpuits, France
4.2.3 Neste, Netherlands
4.2.4 ENI,  Italy
4.2.5 Neste, Porvoo, Finland
4.2.6 Neste,  Netherlands
4.2.7 SkyNRG, Germany
4.2.8 Preem, Sweden
4.2.9 STI-SCA, Ostrand, Sweden
4.2.10 ST1-SCA, Gothenburg, Sweden
4.2.11 PKN, Poland
4.2.12 Shell, Netherlands

4.3 Case Studies of Co-Processing Projects 
4.3.1 Phillips 66, UK
4.3.2 Total Energies, Normandy, France
4.3.3 BP, Spain
4.3.4 Repsol, Petronor, Spain
4.3.5 Total Energies, Oudalle, France
4.3.6 Repsol, Tarragona, Spain
4.3.7 Repsol, Pertollano, Spain
4.3.8 British Petroleum, Germany
4.3.9 ENI, Italy
4.3.10 OMV,  Austria
4.3.11 OMV, Romania
4.3.12 Tupras, Izmir, Turkey

4.4 Case Studies of Fischer-Tropsch (FT) Projects, Feedstocks 
4.4.1 Lighthouse Green Fuel, UK

4.4.1 Greenergy, Thames, UK
4.4.1 Fulcrum-Essar Oil UK
4.4.1 Total Energies-BioTFuel
4.4.1 Enerkem, Netherlands
4.4.1 KLM,Vaxjo
4.4.1 SkyNRG-Climeworks-Hague Airport
4.4.1 Velocys, Immingham, UK
4.4.1 Etihad-Tadweer, UAE

4.5 Case Studies of Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Projects
4.5.1 Lanzajet – BA – Nova Pangea, UK

4.5.2 Swedish Biofuels-Cowi, Swedenr
4.5.3 Lanzajet (Project Dragon), UK
4.5.4 Lanzatech-Shell-Vattenfall-SAS (HySkies), Sweden
4.5.5 Lanzajet – Carbon Engineering (AtmosFuel), UK

4.6 Case Studies of Power-To-Liquids (PTL) Projects 
Hydrogen & Carbon Dioxide Mix via Methanol Synthesis and Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis

4.6.1 Westkuste 100
4.6.2 Interac-Engie-Safran
4.6.3 Hy2Gen (Green Areal Lausitz)
4.6.4 Shell, Wesseling
4.6.5 HCS Group
4.6.6 Engie-Infinium
4.6.7 Green Fuels
4.6.8 Sasol-Cemex
4.6.9 Synkero
4.6.10 Nordic Electrofuel
4.6.11 Loun-NH2
4.6.12 HyNovera Hy2Gen
4.6.13 SkyNRG-Schwenk Zement-Stuttgart Airport
4.6.14 Velocys (E-Alto)
4.6.15 Arcadia eFuels
4.6.16 Atmosfair
4.6.17 Firefly Green Fuels

4.7 ASIA: CASE STUDIES OF PRODUCERS AND PROJECTS
Each producer case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status, Production Capacity, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Expansion Plans

AUSTRALIA
4.7.1 Eneos-Ampol
4.7.2 BP, Kwinana
4.7.3 Lanzajet-JetZero
4.7.4 Renewable Bio

JAPAN
4.7.5 Fuji Oil – Itochu
4.7.6 Cosmo Oil
4.7.7 Kansai-Revo-JGC
4.7.8 Euglena
4.7.9 Total Energies – Eneos
4.7.10 Idemitsu
4.7.11 Cosmo Oil – Mitsui
4.7.12 Lanzajet
4.7.13 Byogy
4.7.15 Velocys-Toyo

INDONESIA
4.7.16 LX International
4.7.17 Cilacap, Pertamina
4.7.18 Bio-Tech Energy
4.7.19  Plaju, Pertamina

MALAYSIA
4.7.20 1 Vandelay Ventures
4.7.21 EcoCeres
4.7.22 ENI – Petronas

CHINA
4.7.23 Jiaao, Gunyuan
4.7.24 Haike, Donying
4.7.25 EcoCeres
4.7.26 Beijing Haixin Energy Technology
4.7.27 Sichuan Jishang Environmental Technology
4.7.27 Sanju Biofuels
4.7.29 Oriental Energy
4.7.30 Sinopec
4.7.31 ECO Environmental

SOUTH KOREA
4.7.32 Hyundai Oilbank
4.7.33 Dansuk
4.7.34 LG Chem-Dansuk

THAILAND
4.7.35 BSGF

PHILLIPINES
4.7.36 WasteFuel

6 AIRLINES’ #SAF OFF-TAKE AGREEMENTS
At the end of 2023, there were 45 airlines with offtake agreements. Of these, 7 of them had for or more offtake agreements in place.   The seven largest off-takers of SAF are are reviewed in detail, along with an index of the 45 airlines with announced off-take agreements..
6.1 American Airlines
6.2 Delta
6.3 Jet Blue
6.4 KLM
6.5 Lufthansa Group
6.6 Ryan Air
6.7 United Airlines

7. SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS: MARKET GROWTH, EXPANSION,  COMMERCIALIZATION PROSPECTS, FORECASTS, OUTLOOK|
7.1.1  Sustainable Aviation Goals and Targets by Country, Organization, Timeline

7.1..2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Demand Forecast to 2055 based on IEA, ICAO
7.1.3 Estimated EU Bio-Based Aviation Fuel Production in 2025 at 15% Blend Rates
7.1.4 Investment Risk Outlook & Volume of Sustainable Aviation Fuels from 2030 to 2050
7.1..5 De-Risking Start Up CAPEX & OPEX Costs With Low Cost Feedstocks & Long-Term Partnerships

8. RENEWABLE DIESEL MARKET GROWTH, EXPANSION, PROSPECTS, FORECASTS, AND COMMERCIALIZATION OUTLOOK
8.1. Short Term Forecasts to 2025, Reviews and Outlook

8.2  Medium Term Forecasts to 2030, Reviews and Outlook
8.3 Long term Forecasts to 2050, Reviews and Outlook

TABLE OF FIGURES

SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS
Chart: Commercial Flights Operated on Sustainable Aviation Fuel Since 2008, in Hundred Thousands

Map: Regular Commercial Sustainable Aviation Fuel Flights Taking Off From 5 Airports

Table: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements by Producer, Partner, Airline, Agreement, Volumes

Table: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Agreements by Producer, Purchaser, Offtake Production per Year, Date

Graph: Early Stage SAF Partnership Initiatives by Stakeholder Group, Projects Producers, Airlines

SAF Case Study: World Energy/Alt-Air and United Airlines Commercial Partnership by Date, Million Gallons, Blend Ratio, CO2 Reduction, Thousands of Flights, Job Creation

SAF Case Study: Neste-Lufthansa Commercial Partnership by Date, Million Gallons, Blend Ratio, CO2 Reduction, Thousands of Flights

SAF Case Study: Neste Air Cooperation With Leading Aviation Brands, including Lufthansa, Boeing, KLM, SAS, American Airlines, Alaska Airlines, UPS, DFW & SFO Airports, Air BP

SAF Case Study: Gevo Commercial Partnerships by Date, Million Gallons, Production Facilities for IsoButanol and and Jet Fuel Production Partnerships for Alaska Airlines and Lufthansa Airlines

SAF Case Study: Fulcrum Commercial Partnerships With United Airlines and BP Air by Date, Feedstock Supply Chain, Biocrude Production, Co-Processing, and Offtake Agreement with BP Air

SAF Case Study: Red Rock Biofuels Supply Chain Partnerships With TSS, Flour, PPE, Wood Group, Velocys, Haldor Topsoe, TCG, and Ten Year Offtake Agreements with Southwest Airways and FedEx

SAF Case Study: Licella SAFProduction Partnerships and Offtake for Quantas and Virgin Australia

NEXT GENERATION FEEDSTOCKS AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR CO-PROCESSING
Table: What’s Next in Renewable Diesel and Jet Fuel Blending? HEFA & FT Process Technologies For Sustainable Feedstocks by Pathway, Process, Producers, Date of Approval by Tech, and Blending Limit

Graph: Global Feedstocks for Renewable Diesel and Sustainable Jet Fuel Co-Processing, including Residues, Waste, Energy Crops, MSW, Forest Residues, Agricultural Residues, Organic Waste Streams

Table: Examples of Co Processing of Syncrude/Green Crude by Company, Location, Feedstock, Conversion Pathway by HEFA & Fischer Tropsch and Annual Capacity by Producer in Million Gal/Yr

Graph: Example of Refinery Co-Processing Crude Oil and Renewable Green Crude Oil into Renewable Diesel and Gasoline, Leveraging Existing Refinery Infrastructure for CAPEX, OPEX Advantages

Graph: Example of Production of Green/Syncrude for Co-Processing, by Feedstock Pre-Treatment, Fischer-Tropch Gasification of Sustainable Feedstocks to Syncrude, and Co-Processing Syncrude via Hydtrotreating and Hydro-Cracking into Renewable Diesel, Sustainable Aviation Fuel, and Co-products

Graphs: Examples of Co-Processing Green/Syncrude by Velosys, Ensyn, ARA Chevron Lummus Global

FEEDSTOCK MARKETS, PRODUCTION AND FORECASTS
Short Term Outlook – Where Will We Get the Feedstocks and The Fuels?

Illustration of Harvest of Oilseeds by Continent, Estimated, in Million Tons – North America, S. America, Europe, Africa, Asia

Short Term Outlook: Current Production of Oilseed Crops, Total and Worldwide, Estimated in Million Tons, by Feedstock Type (Palm, Sunflower, Rapeseed, Soybeans) for Total Global Oilseed Production

Mid Term Outlook – Food Production Increases With World Population, Supply of Grain and Vegetable Oils, Estimated by Continent in KG Per Capita, North America, S. America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Oceania

LongTerm Outlook: Oilseed Harvests Growing Steadily, Harvests of Oilseeds by Continent, Estimated in Million Tons for North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia and Oceana

FEEDSTOCKS USED IN RENEWABLE DIESEL & SAF PRODUCTION
Project Examples of First Generation Vegetable Oils in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

  • Soybean Oil
  • Rapeseed Oil
  • Palm Oil
  • Canola Oil
  • Sunflower Oil

Project Examples of Second Generation Waste-Based F.O.G.s, Fats, Oils and GreasesUsed Cooking Oil / Yellow Grease

  • Poultry Fat
  • Beef Tallow
  • Pork – White Grease
  • Brown Grease
  • Trap Grease

Project Examples of Non-Food Sources – Third Generation Energy Crops

  • DCO – Distiller’s Corn Oil
  • Rotational Crops: Carinata, Camelina, Pennycress
  • Tall Oils from Forestry
  • Pongamia
  • Castor
  • Tobacco Oils
  • Hemp
  • Winter Oilseeds
  • Jatropha
  • Aquatic Oils: Algae, Seaweed, Halophytes, Salicornia


Project Examples of Circular Feedstocks from Waste Based Forestry and Agricultural Residues

  • Wood and Forestry Residues
  • Sawmill Residues and Sawdust
  • Municipal Solid Waste
  • Bagasse
  • Corn Stover
  • Rice Husks
  • Almond and Nut Shells


TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODELS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL, SAF
Examples of: Up-Grading Next Gen Feedstocks (Wood, Ag Residues, Waste)

Fischer-Tropsch Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for Processing

Pyrolysis Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for Processing

Hydro-Thermal Liquefication Demonstration Level Producers

Technology Providers and Producers of Intermediates (Biocrude, ATJ) for Up-Grading into Renewable Diesel & Jet
Fuel via Fischer-Tropsch, Pyrolysis, and other TRL Level 5+ Players

Examples of Biocrude & Syncrude Intermediate Up-Grading to Renewable Diesel and SAF

Fischer-Tropsch Gasification (FT) examples from Velocys, Fulcrum, RedRock

Hydro-Thermal Liquefication (HTL) examples from ReadiFuels/ARA

ATJ Alcohol To Jet (ATJ) process examples via Dehydration, Hydrotreating, Isomerization, Refining from Lanzatech, Gevo, Byogy, Vertimass

REVIEW OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC STUDIES (CAPEX & OPEX ESTIMATES) OF RENEWABLE DIESEL AND SAF TECHNOLOGIES , FEEDSTOCKS
Table: OPEX / Production Costs of SAF Fuels by Technology (HEFA, ATJ) and Feedstock (Used Cooking Oil, Yellow Grease, Tallow, Soy Oil, Palm Oil, Camelina Oil, Corn Stover, Switch Grass, Wood, Sugarcane, Lignocellulose) Cost of Production in $ per Liter – Minimum Selling Price

Table: OPEX Production Costs of Sustainable Aviation Fuels from Various Pathways, including ATJ (Ethanol, n-Butanol, Iso-Butanol, Methanol), OTJ (Pyrolysis, CH, HRJ of Bio-Crude Oils), GTJ ( CTL, CBTL, Gas Fermentation) of Syngas to Hydrocarbons and Ethanol, STJ (Catalytic Conversion of Sugars via ARP and HMF Pathways) of Syngas to Ethanol, DMF and HMF, Fatty Acids and Farnesene – Intermediate Costs in $/Gallon and Final Jet Fuel Costs/OPEX in $/Gallon

Table: OPEX Cost of SAF by Technology Pathways – HDO of Camelina, Gasification-FT (Corn Stover, Switch Grass, Algae), HDO and Advanced Fermentation (Pongamia, Sugarcane Molasses, Alga, Corn Grain, Switchgrass) and HDO (Wasted Oil, Tallow, Soybean Oil) – Prices in US $/Liter

 

GLOBAL MARKET DEMAND, PRODUCTION OF SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS VIA RENEWABLE DIESEL
Roadmap: Renewable Diesel and SAF Demand Projections 2025-2055 in MT

Map of Global Renewable Diesel Production By Producer, Region, Location and Capacity
Chart: Global Renewable Diesel Producer Comparison by Production Volumes Top 10 Producers
Table: Current Global Renewable Diesel Producer by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and Location
Table: Planned Global Renewable Diesel Expansion by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and Location
Table: New Renewable Diesel Plants Under Construction by Capacity, MT, Gallons, Location

EUROPE
EU Renewable Energy (RED2) Directives and Targets 2024 to 2030, by Country

EU Renewable Diesel Production Volumes

Targets for GHG Emission Savings to 2030 Pie Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel Production by Project, Million Liters Per Year Capacity

Time Series Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production and Production Capacity

Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel Production By Country 2009-2019, Netherlands, Finland, Italy, France

Chart: Worldwide Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production Capacity and Biodiesel Market Share

Producer Case Study: Neste, Finland, Renewable Diesel Plant in Porvoo, Feedstocks, Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion

Producer Case Study: Neste, Porvoo Refinery Technology Overview of Hydrogen Production Plant and Hydrocracker Units at Porvoo, Including Technology Types, Suppliers, Partners, CAPEX and Capacity

Producer Case Study: UPM, Finland, Lappeenranta Refinery, Feedstocks from Tall Oil and Wood Residues, Hydrotreating and Distillation Technology for Tall Oil, Capacity, Start Up Date, Offtake

Producer Case Study: ENi, Italy, Renewable Diesel Plant in Venice, Feedstock Use in MT, UOP/ENI Technology, Capacity, Co Products (Green Diesel, Naptha, LPT, Jet Fuel), Startup, Expansion Plans

Producer Case Study: ENi, Italy, Renewable Diesel Plant in Gela, Feedstock Use in MT, UOP/Eni Technology, Capacity, Co Products (Green Diesel, Naptha, LPT, Jet Fuel), Startup, Expansion Plans

Producer Case Study: Total, France, Renewable Diesel Plant in La Mede, Feedstock Use by Type in MT, Technology Partners, Capacity and Expansion, Co Products, Startup Date, Expansion Plans

Table: EU RED2 & CORSIA Analysis of Renewable Diesel Technologies by Type, Feedstocks Used, GHG Emissions Score/Rating % for Each Technology and Feedstock ( HVO, SIP, ATJ)

EU Forecast 2023-2030: RED2 Targets for Renewable Diesel & Aviation Fuel Production in MT by Maximum Shares from 1st Gen, 2nd Gen, and Advanced Fuels/Feedstocks (Annexes IX Part A & B)

 

GLOBAL MARKETS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL FUELS PRODUCTION & CO-PROCESSING
USA Biomass-Based Biodiesel Targets, EPA Final Renewable Fuel Volume Requirements in Billion Gallons, by Year, for Biomass Based Diesel, Advanced Biofuels, and Renewable Fuel

Table: USA Biomass Based Diesel Growth Over Time, Million Gallons/Yr, Final Volume Standards

Chart: US Renewable Diesel Production Volumes in Million Gallons Per Year

Table: Current U.S. Renewable Diesel Producers by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and Location

Producer Case Study: Diamond Green Diesel, Renewable Diesel Plant in Louisiana, Feedstocks, Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake Partners

Producer Case Study: REG, Renewable Diesel Plant in Louisiana, Feedstocks, Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake Partners

Producer Case Study: World Energy (AltAir), Biojet & Renewable Diesel Plant in California,, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Production Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake Partners

 

CALIFORNIA
Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel Growth Acceleration, in Million Gallons

Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel Supply, in Million Gallons

Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel & Biodiesel Production Volumes, Million Gallons

Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Production by Crops and Residues Used w Credits (in Million MT) for Soy, Canola, Fish Oil, Distillers Corn Oil, Tallow, Used Cooking Oil

Chart: California Annual Diesel Demand Forecast to 2030 by Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel, Petroleum Diesel, in Millions of Gallons

CANADA
Canada’s Renewable Diesel Mandates by Target Volumes and GHG Reduction in Carbon Intensity

Canada’s Renewable Diesel Mandates, By Province, British Colombia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, by Target Volumes and GHG Reduction in Carbon Intensity

Canada’s Clean Fuel Standard, Current Timeline of Regulatory Plans by Liquid Fuel Stream, Solid and Gaseus Fuel Stream Requirements, LCA Model, and Carbon Intensity Values

Chart: Canada’s Renewable Diesel & Biodiesel Consumption, in Million Metric Tons Year

Chart: Consumption of Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel in Canada By Feedstock, in Million Liters and GHG % Avoided in Mt CO2 by: Canola, Soy, Tallow, Yellow Grease, Palm, Rapeseed

 

BIOFUELS FOR SHIPPING – IMO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL
Chart: IMO Analysis of Nitrogen (Nox) Emission Limits in NoX Emission Control Areas, Tiers 1-III Chart: IMO Targets Requiring Shipping to Cut GHG CO2 Emissions 50% by 2050 in Tons

Chart: IMO Fuels Measured by Type of Fuel (Diesel, Gas Oil, Light Fuel Oil, Heavy Fuel Oil, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Liquified Natural Gas, Methanol and Ethanol), and Carbon Content (t-Co2/t-Fuel)

Table: Benefits of Drop In Renewable Diesel Fuels Supplies vs LNG Supplies and Scrubbers to Meet IMO Shipping Regulations for Sox, Nox, and CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Chart: Market Projections for Marine Fuels Volumes Comparing Biofuels to LNG by MT/yr

 

REVIEW OF FORECASTS – SHORT TERM, MID TERM, AND LONG-TERM OUTLOOKSShort Term Outlook: Supply and Demand Imbalances Between Advanced Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel

Mandates for Low Carbon Markets in U.S. & E.U., Canada: Market Pull for Lower Cost Suppliers / Exporters in Emerging Markets

Medium Term Outlook: Transition from 2023 Volumetric Targets to 2030 LCFS and GHG Targets Increases Market Demand for Several Lower-Carbon Fuels, Feedstocks, Process Technologies

Long Term Outlook: Commercialization of (1) Low Carbon Feedstocks and (2) Process Technologies to Meet (3) Estimated Low-Carbon Renewable Diesel and SAF Demands From 2030 to 2050

 

Order Low Carbon Fuels 2040: Emerging Markets for SAF & RD

 

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About The Author
Will Thurmond is the CEO of Emerging Markets Online and has been consulting utilities, oil and gas companies, and biofuels organizations for 25+ yrs. He has published several studies on biofuels (Low Carbon Fuels 2040: Emerging Markets for SAF & RD, in 2024), (Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, in 2021), (Renewable Diesel 2030, in 2018), (Drop-In Fuels 2020, in 2014), (Algae 2020, in 2012), and (Biodiesel 2020, in 2006 and Vol 2 in 2008)..

Mr, Thurmond is the lead consultant for Emerging Markets Online’s consulting, market research, competitive intelligence, and forecasting activities for feedstocks, markets, and technologies.  You can reach him via email info(at)emerging-markets.com or tel 713 429 4905 (Houston).

 

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