Market Studies

Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 Study

New study! Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, Vol 2. (249 pages, September 2021) focuses on low-carbon feedstock availability, technology pathways for low carbon renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation production.


 


INTRODUCTION AND TABLE OF CONTENTS

Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) 2030  covers four key areas:

1) renewable diesel producer case studies
2) feedstocks for renewable diesel
3) technology pathways for producing various feedstocks
4) in-depth analysis of the Sustainable Aviation Fuels producers and markets (mostly commercially made at renewable diesel facilities, currently, and at dozens of demo and pilot facilities in demonstration quantities).

 

The study, and presentation summary, highlights

a) new development opportunities for aviation fuels
b) feedstock availability and partnerships for growth
c) future options for using non-FOG based feedstocks from low-carbon low-cost waste sources (from trees, municipal solid waste, agricultural waste, food waste, farm waste)
d) advanced technologies for turning bio-crude, and syncrude into renewable diesel and SAF (sustainable aviation) fuels. 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. GLOBAL DEMAND DRIVERS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL 
1.1 New GHG and Low-Carbon Fuels Regulations Bring New Opportunities
1.1.1. Clean Cities Transport Initiative Opportunities in U.S., Europe, Americas, Asia
1.1.2. Sustainable Aviation Initiatives for COP21 Corsia (U.N.) Program
1.1.3. Sustainable Shipping Initiatives for IMO (U.N.) 2020 Regulations
1.1.4. Feedstock Opportunities to Produce Low-Carbon Fuels for Emerging Markets like California
1.2 Low Carbon Fuel Regulations Bring Disruptive Challenges, Opportunities to Producers
1.2.1 Change and Transition from 2020 Targets to 2030 COP21 GHG Targets
1.2.2 New GHG Targets Bring Opportunities for Bio/Renewable Diesel (California, EU, Canada)
1.2.3 New GHG Targets Bring Challenges to 1st Generation Biodiesel Producers (Soy, Palm)
1.2.4 New GHG Regulations Bring Opportunities to Refiners, Blenders, Obligated Parties

 

2. SUMMARY OF GLOBAL RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION
2.1 Review of Renewable Diesel and SAF Demand Projections
2.2 Analysis of Global Renewable Diesel Production by Region, Location and Capacity
2.3 Top 10 Global Renewable Diesel Producers – by Production Volumes
2.4 Current Global Renewable Diesel Producers by Capacity, MT, Gallons, Location, 2021
2.5 Planned Global Renewable Diesel Expansions by Capacity, MT, Gallons, Location, 2021
2.6 New Renewable Diesel Plants Under Construction by Capacity, Gallons, Location, 2021

 

3. EUROPE – DEMAND DRIVERS
3.1 Renewable Energy (RED2) Directives and Targets 2020 to 2030, by Country
3.2 Current EU Renewable Diesel Production Based on COP21 Targets for GHG to 2030
3.3 Market Size and Share of European Renewable Diesel Production by Project
3.4 Rapid Expansion of Europe Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production 2011-2021

 

4. EUROPE- CASE STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS, AND REFINERIES, BY COUNTRY

Each producer site case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status, Production Capacity, Feedstocks,Technology Partners, Expansion Plans

4.1 DENMARK
Neste (Rotterdam, RD/SAF, 345mgy or 1.15 million MT, 2021 Expansion to 2 million MT)

4.2 FINLAND
Neste (Finland, RD/SAF, 270mgy or 440k MT, 2021 Expansion)
UPM BioVerno (RD/SAF, 35mgy or 100k MT, Feedstock: tall Crude Oil, Lappeenranta, 2021: operating)
UPM (Kotka, RD/SAF. 137mgy or 300k MT, Feedstock: Tall Crude Oil, 2021: planning for 2025 production)
ST.1 Finland (RD/SAF, 55mgy or 200k MT, waste oils, 2021 :operating)

4.3 ITALY
ENI Venice (165mgy or 350k MT, RD/SAF w UOP tech, 2021 expanding to 600k MT)
ENI Sicily (Gela Plant Expansion, RD/SAF w UOP tech, 206mgy or 600k MT, 2021 operating)

4.4 FRANCE
Total LaMede (RD/SAF, 150mgy or 500k MT, waste and plant oils, La Mede, 2021 operating)
Total Grandpuits (RD/SAF/Naptha, 93mgy or 400k MT, waste and plant oils, Paris/Seine, 2021 announced)

4.5 SWEDEN
Preem Gothenburg (RD, 250mgy, FOGs, 2021 Operating)
Preem, Sunpine (Gothenburg, HTopsoe, 16,000bpd)
Preem Setra (RD, 8mgy, Woody Biomass, 2021 Construction)

4.6 NETHERLANDS
Empyro Hengelo (5mgy, RD/SAF, Upgraded Pyrolysis Oils, Hengelo, Neth, Operating 2021)
SkyNRG (28mgy, SAF, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 2021 planning)

4.7 UNITED KINGDOM
Philips 66 Humber (RD/SAF, 46mgy, Humber, England, 2024 expansion to 80mgy)

4.7 SPAIN
Repsol (2021: under construction, 2023: opening at 250MT, 2030: expansion to 600MT)
Cepsa

4.9 PORTUGAL
Galp

4.10 POLAND
PKN Orlen (300k MT/yr, 2021: under construction, 2025: plans to open)

5. USA – DEMAND DRIVERS, LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS

5.1 U.S. National Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program and Targets 2005-2022
5.2 California Low Carbon Fuel Standard 2012-2030. Target = 20% by 2030
5.3. Oregon Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 10% by 2025, TBD by 2030
5.4 Washington Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 8.5% by 2030
5.5 British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 20% by 2030
5.6 Neighboring Canada’s Expected Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 12.9% by 2030
5.7 US States with Volumetric Targets (Minnesota, Iowa, Texas, etc)


6. USA – CASE STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS

Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, Vol 2. provides detailed case studies and analysis of the key producers and developers participating in the development of more than 29 renewable diesel projects in North America, 5 in Canada, 18 in Europe, 11 in Asia, and 2 in South America.

Each producer case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status, Production Capacity, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Expansion Plans

6.1 Diamond Green Diesel (Valero/Darling w UOP tech, 675mgy, Norco, Louisiana, US, 2021 Expansion)

6.2 REG Geismar (75mgy operating 2021, Louisiana, US, 2021 Expansion to 340mgy)

6.3 World Energy (RD/SAF, operating, w expansion to 360mgy in 2022, Los Angeles, US)

6.4 Emerald Biofuels (w UOP Tech, 110mgy, Port Arthur, Texas, US, 2021 planning)

6.5 Kern Oil and Refining (California, USA)

6.6 BP Cherry Point (RD/SAF from waste FOG, 42mgy, Birch Bay, Washington, op in 2021)

6.7 Ryze Renewables Las Vegas (RD/SAF, 168mgy, Las Vegas, Nevada, 2021 planning)

6.8 Ryze Renewables Reno (RD/SAF, 168mgy, Las Vegas, Nevada, 2021 planning)

6.9 NEXT Renewable Fuels (RD/SAF, 765mgy, Port of Columbia, Oregon, 2021 planning)

6.10 Marathon (RD/SAF, 183 million gallons/yr, Dickinson, North Dakota, 2021 conversion)

6.11 Holly Frontier Cheyenne (RD, 200 million gallons/yr, Cheyenne, Wyoming, 2021 conversion)

6.12 Global Clean Energy – Exxon (125mgy, 7500 to 15,000 bpd, Bakersfield, California, 2021
conversion)

6.13 Philips 66 Rodeo (RD/SAF, 800mgy, Rodeo, California w Worley, 2021 planning)

6.14 Wyoming Renewable Diesel ( )

6.15 CVR Energy (Wynnewood, Oklahoma Q3 2021)

6.16 St Joseph Renewable Fuels (RD/Naptha, 90mgy, Waste Oils, Illinois. 2021 planning)

6.17 Diamond Green Diesel – Port Arthur (Valero/Darling wUOPtech, 470mgy, Texas. 2021 construction)

6.18 East Kansas Agri-Energy (RD, 5mgy, DCO oil, Nextchem/Saola tech, Garnett, Kansas, 2021 operating)

6.19 Aemetis Carbon Zero 1 Project (RD/SAF/RNG/CCS, 45mgy, Riverbank, California, 2021 construction)

6.20 Gevo: Net Zero 1 (RD/SAF/RNG/Feed, 45mgy, California, est. 4Q 2021)

6.21 Seabord Energy (former Abengoa, 6500bpd/85mgy, Hugoton, Kansas, est. Dec. 2021)

6.22 Heartwell Renewables (Love’s-Musket-Trillium/Cargill, Tallow, 80mgy, Nebraska)

6.23 Gron Fuels (w/Koch, 900 million gallons/year, Port Charles in Baton-Rouge, Louisiana, 2021 planning)

6.24 Calumet (Great Falls Refinery (10 to 12,000bpd, Great Falls, Montana est 2022)

 

6.3 CANADA

LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS & PROGRAMS
6.3.1 Canada’s Low Carbon Fuel Standardard Target = 12.9% by 2030
6.3.2 British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 20% by 2030

RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS AND CASE STUDIES

6.3.3 Covenant Energy (RD/SAF. 6500bpd, 300mliters/yr, Canola, Saskatchewan, est 2023)

6.3.4 Tidewater (3000bpd w HTopsoe, Prince Georges refinery, British Columbia, est 2022+)

6.3.5 Cielo Alberta (RD, 30mgy, Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada, 2021 planning)

6.3.6 Ensyn Ontario (3mgy, Renewable Crude and Diesel from Pyrolysis, 2021 operating)

6.3.7 Ensyn Cote Du Nord Quebec (10mgy, Renewable Crude and Diesel, Pyrolysis, 2021 construction)

6.4 SOUTH AMERICA

6.4.1 PARAGUAY
Omega Green (RD/SAF, 400mgy, BSBios/Paraguay, $800million est, 2024 Startup)

6.4.3 BOLIVIA
Government/Bolivian Fiscal Oil Fields(YPFB) Partnership,
Guillermo Elder Bell refinery ($250million, 9,000bpd or 3 million barrels/yr)

 

6.4 ASIA

6.4.1 SINGAPORE
Neste (RD/SAF, 2020: 675 mgy or 1.3 million MT/yr, 2025 expansion to 2.7 million MT/yr)

6.4.2 INDONESIA
Pertamina Plaju refinery (RD/SAF w UOP, 307 mgy or 20,000bpd, plant oils, 2023 startup)
Cilacap Refinery (RD/SAF w UOP, 92mgy or 6,000bpd, 2022 announcement)

6.4.3 CHINA

Total (120k MT/yr, new project)

Eco Biochemical (120k MT/yr, 2021: operating)

Hunanyu (120k MT/yr, 2021: operating)

Changyou Bioenergy (200k MT/yr, 2021: operating)

Yangzou Jianyuan (100k MT/yr, 2021: operating)

 

7. FEEDSTOCKS USED IN RENEWABLE DIESEL & SAF PRODUCTION
Each Feedstock Includes an Introduction, Markets, Consumption, Outlook, and Examples in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.1 First Generation Vegetable Oils

7.1.1 Soybean Oil
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.1.2 Rapeseed Oil
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.1.3 Palm Oil
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.1.4 Canola Oil
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.1.5 Sunflower Oil
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.2 Second Generation Waste-Based F.O.G.s, Fats, Oils and Greases

7.2.1 Used Cooking Oil / Yellow Grease
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.2.2 Poultry Fat
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.2.3 Beef Tallow
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.2.4 Pork – White Grease
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.2.5 Brown Grease
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.2.6 Trap Grease
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.3 Third Generation Energy Crops From Non-Food Sources

7.3.1 DCO – Distiller’s Corn Oil
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.3.2 Rotational Crops: Carinata, Camelina, Pennycress
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.3.3 Tall Oils from Forestry
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.3.4 Pongamia
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.3.5 Castor
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.3.6 Tobacco Oils
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.3.7 Hemp

7.3.8 Winter Oilseeds

7.3.9 Jatropha

7.3.10 Aquatic Oils: Algae, Seaweed, Halophytes, Salicornia

7.4 Circular Feedstocks from Waste Based Forestry and Agricultural Residues

7.4.1 Wood and Forestry Residues
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.4.2 Sawmill Residues and Sawdust
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.4.3 Municipal Solid Waste
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.4.4 Bagasse

7.4.5 Corn Stover

7.4.6 Rice Husks

7.4.7 Almond and Nut Shells

 

8 TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL AND SAF

8.1 Up-Grading Next Gen Feedstocks (Wood, Ag Residues, Waste)

8.2 Fischer-Tropsch Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for Processing

8.3 Pyrolysis Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for Processing

8.4 Hydro-Thermal Liquefication Demonstration Level Producers

8.5 Technology Providers and Producers of Intermediates (Biocrude, ATJ) for Up-Grading into
Renewable Diesel & Jet Fuel via Fischer-Tropsch, Pyrolysis, ATJ, and other TRL Level 5+ Players

 

8.6 Examples of Biocrude & Syncrude Intermediate Up-Grading to Renewable Diesel and SAF

8.6.1 Fischer-Tropsch Gasification (FT) examples from Velocys, Fulcrum, RedRock

8.6.2 Hydro-Thermal Liquefication (HTL) examples from ReadiFuels/ARA

8.6.3 ATJ Alcohol To Jet (ATJ) process examples via Dehydration, Hydrotreating, Isomerization,          Refining from Lanzatech, Gevo, Byogy, Vertimass

 

9. SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS

The Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, Vol 2. study also focuses on Sustainable Aviation Fuels in detail, providing case studies of producers and the low-carbon feedstocks, technology pathways, partnerships, investors, and off-takers.

 

9.1 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION – MARKETS
9.1.1 Global Policies and Targets – U.N. and C.O.R.S.I.A
9.1.2 Regional Aviation Policies and Targets – EU RED2
9.1.3 National Aviation Policies and Targets -US RFS, Canada CFS, C.O.R.S.I.A’s member countries & targets
9.1.4 Key Organizations in Sustainable Aviation

 

9.2 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION PRODUCERS, PROJECTS & VOLUMES TO 2025

9.2.1 World Energy, Paramount, 25 Million Gallons/Year in 2020

9.2.2 Neste, Porvoo, 34 Million Gallons/Year in 2020

9.2.3 Gevo, Silsbee, Texas, Demonstration Project in 2020

9.2.4 Total, La Mede, France, SAF Demonstration & Production in 2020

9.2.5 Fulcrum, Sierra, Nevada, 7 Million Gallons/Year in 2021

9.2.6 RedRock, Lakeview, Colorade, 6 Million Gallons/Year in 2021

9.2.7 Neste, Singapore & Rotterdam, 481 Million Gallons/Year in 2022-23

9.2.8 SkyNRG, Delfzijl, 33 Million Gallons/Year in 2022

9.2.9 GoSunshine, New Orleans, 29 Million Gallons/Year in 2022

9.2.10 Fulcrum, Gary, Indiana, 21 Million Gallons/Year in 2023

9.2.11 ReadiFuels, 2 Locations, 24 Million Gallons/Year in 2023

9.2.12 Preem, Gothenburg, Sweden 70 Million Gallons/Year in 2024

9.2.13 Lanzatech, Four Locations in Production, 100 Million Gallons/Year in 2024

9.2.14 Velocycs, Immingham, England, 20 Million Gallons/Year in 2025

 

9.3 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS
9.3.1 Sustainable Aviation Goals and Targets by Country, Organization, Timeline
9.3.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Demand Forecast From 2015 to 2055 based on IEA, ICAO
9.3.3 Estimated EU Bio-Based Aviation Fuel Production 2017-2025 at 15% Blend Rates
9.3.4 Investment Risk Outlook & Volume of Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2015 to 2030 to 2050
9.3.5 De-Risking Start Up CAPEX & OPEX Costs With Low Cost Feedstocks & Long-Term Partnerships

10. RENEWABLE DIESEL OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS TO 2030

10.1 Short Term Forecasts to 2022, Reviews and Outlook

10.2 Medium Term Forecasts to 2025, Reviews and Outlook

10.3 Long term Forecasts to 2030, Reviews and Outlook

About The Author
Will Thurmond is the CEO of Emerging Markets Online and has been consulting utilities, oil and gas companies, and biofuels organizations for 25+ yrs. He has published several studies on biofuels (Biodiesel 2020, in 2008), (Algae 2020, in 2012), (Drop-In Fuels 2020, in 2014), (Renewable Diesel 2030, in 2018), (Renewable DIesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, in 2021).

Mr Thurmond formerly served as the Chairman of Greater Houston’s Biofuels Task Force, as an entrepreneur/mentor in residence at start-up incubator Houston Technology Center, and as Chairman of R&D at Americas Biofuels Council. Mr Thurmond is the lead consultant for Emerging Markets Online’s consulting, market research, competitive intelligence, and forecasting activities for feedstocks, markets, and technologies. You can reach him via Emerging Markets Online www.emerging-markets.com, email willthurmond@emerging-markets.com, or tel 713 429 4905 (Houston).

 

Order Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 Now

Select Single, Multiple, or Enterprise License


   

 

You can also request for an invoice to info@emerging-markets.com or  by tel +1 713 429 4905 (Houston, TX).

Single -User License:  $2950, A Personal License
https://checkout.square.site/merchant/5G5EXBYQAHX0V/checkout/W3LLYF6EZWHUVYDKGLBAD2J5

Multiple User License: – $4950, For Use by Employees of a Company Department
https://checkout.square.site/merchant/5G5EXBYQAHX0V/checkout/I373D3FSLQUHDLEGJSZBXTYY

Enterprise User License: $7450, Available to Employees of The Entire Company
https://checkout.square.site/merchant/5G5EXBYQAHX0V/checkout/AEQSAY6IS5YEZFBIFVUYENKC

Dollar Test Page: $1.00, For Testing The Checkout System
https://checkout.square.site/merchant/5G5EXBYQAHX0V/checkout/7UHFGPRC6OV4HTNUFDWK4AMY

RENEWABLE DIESEL & SAF PRODUCER STUDIES
Diamond Green Diesel, Louisiana
REG Geismar, Louisiana
World Energy, Los Angeles,
Emerald Biofuels Port Arthur, Texas
Kern Oil and Refining California,
BP Cherry Point, Birch Bay, Washington
Ryze Renewables Las Vegas
Ryze Renewables Reno
NEXT Renewable Fuels
Marathon, Dickinson, North Dakota
Holly Fron�er, Cheyenne ,Wyoming
Global Clean Energy – Exxon California,
Philips 66 ,Rodeo, California
Wyoming Renewable Diesel
CVR EnergY, Wynnewood, Oklahoma
St Joseph Renewable Fuels
Illinois

Diamond Green Diesel, Port Arthur Texas
East Kansas Agri-Energy , Garne�, Kansas
Aeme�s Carbon Zero 1 Project, California
Gevo: Net Zero 1, California
Seabord Energy, Hugoton, Kansas
Heartwell Renewables, Nebraska
Gron Fuels, Baton-Rouge, Louisiana
Calumet Great Falls Refinery, Montana
Neste, Ro�erdam, Netherlands
Neste, Finland
UPM BioVerno, Finland
UPM Kotka, Finland
ST.1 Finland
ENI Venice, Italy
ENI Sicily, Italy
Total LaMede, France
Total Grandpuits, France
Preem Gothenburg, Sweden
Preem, Sunpine, Sweden
Preem Setra, Sweden
Empyro Hengelo, Netherlands
SkyNRG,Amsterdam, Netherlands
Philips 66 Humber, UK
Repsol, Spain
Cepsa, Spain
Galp, Portugal
PKN Orlen, Portugal
Covenant Energy, Saskatchewan, Canada
Tidewater, Bri�sh Columbia, Canada
Cielo Alberta, Canada
Ensyn Ontario, Canada
Ensyn Cote Du Nord Quebec, Canada
Omega Green, Paraguay
Bolivian Fiscal Oil Fields(YPFB) Partnership
Neste, Singapore
Pertamina Plaju, Indonesia
Cilacap Refinery, Indonesia
Total, China
Eco Biochemical, China
Hunanyu , China
Changyou Bioenergy, China
Yangzou Jianyuan, China

SUSTAINABLE AVIATION PRODUCER STUDIES
World Energy, SkyNRG, Red Rock Biofuels, Gevo, Velocys,
Lanzatech, Fulcrum, Neste Air, Byogy, Ver�mass

FEEDSTOCKS IN RENEWABLE DIESEL & SAF PRODUCTION

1st Gen: Soybean, Rapeseed,Palm, Canola, Sunflower

Circular Feedstocks: Used Cooking Oil,
Yellow Grease, Poultry Fat,Beef Tallow, White Grease,
Brown Grease, Trap Grease, Dis�ller’s Corn Oil
Circular, Rotational Crops: Carinata, Pennycress

Energy Crops: Tall Oils, Pongamia, Castor, Tobacco
Oils, Hemp, Winter Oilseeds, Jatropha

Circular Feedstocks from Ag Waste and Residues:
Bagasse, Corn Stover, Rice Husks, Almond and Nut Shells

Circular Feedstocks from Wood and Forestry Residues,
Sawmill Residues and Sawdust, Municipal Solid Waste

Aquatic Oils: Algae, Seaweed, Halophytes, Salicornia