Industry Reports

Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 Study

 

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Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 provides detailed case studies and analysis of the key producers and developers participating in the development of more than 29 renewable diesel projects in the USA, 5 in Canada, 18 in Europe, 11 in Asia, and 2 in South America (ps chapters 4-6, Producers, for a comprehensive list of renewable diesel refineries, production capacities, locations, feedstocks, partnerships, and timelines).

One key trend of larger-scale renewable diesel retrofits of petroleum refineries is now being accompanied by the emergence of smaller scale, localized, sustainable aviation refineries.

This growing trend of smaller, localized plants favors low-carbon feedstocks in geographically advantaged areas that can benefit the specialty-scale RD/SAF integrated refinery. Feed stocks such as:

* forestry tree oil (St1, UPM, Neste),
* crude tall oil (Fintoil, Finland),
* raw tall oil (Preem, Sweden),
* pongamia (Omega Green Paraguay),
* castor oil (Eni Italy),
* specialty camelina (Global Clean Energy-Exxon California),
* specialty carinata (multiple airlines),
* purpose grown penny cress (REG),
* cover cress (NBB R&D initiatives),
* municipal solid waste (Fulcrum),
* Distiller’s Corn Oil (DCO with Darling and Valero JV Diamond Green Diesel, East Kansas Agri-Energy, and several others),
* forestry products (Louisiana Green Fuels),
* Cielo Energy in Canada (sawdust, plastics, tires, MSW, construction debris),
* circular feedstocks (palm waste and UCO at Neste, Singapore refinery), and
* smaller, non-commodity traded, feed stocks and specialty markets with higher values.

The Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 study provides a growing number of case studies of companies that have dedicated joint venture partnerships for (upstream) feedstocks and (downstream) offtake agreements.

The Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 study includes a comprehensive analysis of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producers, and provides a forward looking set of forecasts for market growth, feedstock initiatives, technology deployment for renewable diesel & SAF from the year 2021 to 2030.

 

Table of Contents

 

1. GLOBAL DEMAND DRIVERS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL 

1.1 New GHG and Low-Carbon Fuels Regulations Bring New Opportunities

1.1.1. Clean Cities Transport Initiative Opportunities in U.S., Europe, Americas, Asia

1.1.2. Sustainable Aviation Initiatives for CORSIA (U.N.) Program

1.1.3. Sustainable Shipping Initiatives for IMO (U.N.) 2020 Regulations

1.1.4. Feedstock Opportunities to Produce Low-Carbon Fuels for Emerging Markets like California

1.2 Low Carbon Fuel Regulations Bring Disruptive Challenges, Opportunities to Producers

1.2.1 Change and Transition from 2020 Targets to 2030 COP26 GHG Targets

1.2.2 New GHG Targets Bring Opportunities for Bio/Renewable Diesel (California, EU, Canada)

1.2.3 New GHG Targets Bring Challenges to 1st Generation Biodiesel Producers (Soy, Palm)

1.2.4 New GHG Regulations Bring Opportunities to Refiners, Blenders, Obligated Parties

 

2. SUMMARY OF GLOBAL RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION

2.1 Review of Renewable Diesel and SAF Demand Projections

2.2 Analysis of Global Renewable Diesel Production by Region, Location and Capacity

2.3 Top 10 Global Renewable Diesel Producers – by Production Volumes

2.4 Existing Global Renewable Diesel Producers by Capacity, MT, Gallons, Location, 2021

2.5 Planned Global Renewable Diesel Expansions by Capacity, MT, Gallons, Location, 2021

2.6 New Renewable Diesel Plants Under Construction by Capacity, Gallons, Location, 2021

 

3. EUROPE: DEMAND DRIVERS

3.1 Renewable Energy (RED2) Directives and Targets 2020 to 2030, by Country

3.2 Current EU Renewable Diesel Production Based on COP21 Targets for GHG to 2030

3.3 Market Size and Share of European Renewable Diesel Production by Project

3.4 Rapid Expansion of Europe Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production 2011-2021

 

4. EUROPE: CASE STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS, AND REFINERIES, BY COUNTRY
Each producer site case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status, Production Capacity, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Expansion Plans

4.1 DENMARK
Neste (Rotterdam, RD/SAF, 345mgy or 1.15 million MT, 2021 Expansion to 2 million MT)

4.2 FINLAND
Neste (Finland, RD/SAF, 270mgy or 440k MT, 2021 Expansion)
UPM BioVerno (RD/SAF, 35mgy or 100k MT, Feedstock: tall Crude Oil, Lappeenranta, 2021: operating)
UPM (Kotka, RD/SAF. 137mgy or 300k MT, Feedstock: Tall Crude Oil, 2021: planning for 2025 production)
ST.1 Finland (RD/SAF, 55mgy or 200k MT, waste oils, 2021 :operating)

4.3 ITALY
ENI Venice (165mgy or 350k MT, RD/SAF w UOP tech, 2021 expanding to 600k MT)
ENI Sicily (Gela Plant Expansion, RD/SAF w UOP tech, 206mgy or 600k MT, 2021 operating)

4.4 FRANCE
Total LaMede (RD/SAF, 150mgy or 500k MT, waste and plant oils, La Mede, 2021 operating)
Total Grandpuits (RD/SAF/Naptha, 93mgy or 400k MT, waste and plant oils, Paris/Seine, 2021 announced)

4.5 SWEDEN
Preem Gothenburg (RD, 250mgy, FOGs, 2021 Operating)
Preem, Sunpine (Gothenburg, HTopsoe, 16,000bpd)
Preem Setra (RD, 8mgy, Woody Biomass, 2021 Construction)

4.6 NETHERLANDS
Empyro Hengelo (5mgy, RD/SAF, Upgraded Pyrolysis Oils, Hengelo, Neth, Operating 2021)
SkyNRG (28mgy, SAF, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 2021 planning)

4.7 UNITED KINGDOM
Philips 66 Humber (RD/SAF, 46mgy, Humber, England, 2024 expansion to 80mgy)

4.8 SPAIN
Repsol (2021: under construction, 2023: opening at 250MT, 2030: expansion to 600MT)
Cepsa

4.9 PORTUGAL
Galp

4.10 POLAND
PKN Orlen (300k MT/yr, 2021: under construction, 2025: plans to open)

 

5. USA: DEMAND DRIVERS, LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS

5.1 U.S. National Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program and Targets 2005-2022
5.2 California Low Carbon Fuel Standard 2012-2030. Target = 20% by 2030
5.3. Oregon Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 10% by 2025, TBD by 2030
5.4 Washington Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 8.5% by 2030
5.5 British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 20% by 2030
5.6 Neighboring Canada’s Expected Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 12.9% by 2030
5.7 US States with Volumetric Targets (Minnesota, Iowa, Texas, etc)

 

6. USA: CASE STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS

Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, Vol 2. provides detailed case studies and analysis of the key producers and developers participating in the development of more than 29 renewable diesel projects in North America, 5 in Canada, 18 in Europe, 11 in Asia, and 2 in South America.

Each producer case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status, Production Capacity, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Expansion Plans

6.1 Diamond Green Diesel (Valero/Darling w UOP tech, 675mgy, Norco, Louisiana, US, 2021 Expansion)
6.2 REG Geismar (75mgy operating 2021, Louisiana, US, 2021 Expansion to 340mgy)
6.3 World Energy (RD/SAF, operating, w expansion to 360mgy in 2022, Los Angeles, US)
6.4 Emerald Biofuels (w UOP Tech, 110mgy, Port Arthur, Texas, US, 2021 planning)
6.5 Kern Oil and Refining (California, USA)
6.6 BP Cherry Point (RD/SAF from waste FOG, 42mgy, Birch Bay, Washington, op in 2021)
6.7 Ryze Renewables Las Vegas (RD/SAF, 168mgy, Las Vegas, Nevada, 2021 planning)
6.8 Ryze Renewables Reno (RD/SAF, 168mgy, Las Vegas, Nevada, 2021 planning)
6.9 NEXT Renewable Fuels (RD/SAF, 765mgy, Port of Columbia, Oregon, 2021 planning)
6.10 Marathon (RD/SAF, 183 million gallons/yr, Dickinson, North Dakota, 2021 conversion)
6.11 Holly Frontier Cheyenne (RD, 200 million gallons/yr, Cheyenne, Wyoming, 2021 conversion)
6.12 Global Clean Energy – Exxon (125mgy, 7500 to 15,000 bpd, Bakersfield, California, 2021 conversion)
6.13 Philips 66 Rodeo (RD/SAF, 800mgy, Rodeo, California w Worley, 2021 planning)
6.14 Wyoming Renewable Diesel
6.15 CVR Energy (Wynnewood, Oklahoma Q3 2021)
6.16 St Joseph Renewable Fuels (RD/Naptha, 90mgy, Waste Oils, Illinois. 2021 planning)
6.17 Diamond Green Diesel – Port Arthur (Valero/Darling wUOPtech, 470mgy, Texas. 2021 construction)
6.18 East Kansas Agri-Energy (RD, 5mgy, DCO oil, Nextchem/Saola tech, Garnett, Kansas, 2021 operating)
6.19 Aemetis Carbon Zero 1 Project (RD/SAF/RNG/CCS, 45mgy, Riverbank, California, 2021 construction)
6.20 Gevo: Net Zero 1 (RD/SAF/RNG/Feed, 45mgy, California, est. 4Q 2021)
6.21 Seabord Energy (former Abengoa, 6500bpd/85mgy, Hugoton, Kansas, est. Dec. 2021)
6.22 Heartwell Renewables (Love’s-Musket-Trillium/Cargill, Tallow, 80mgy, Nebraska)
6.23 Gron Fuels (w/Koch, 900 million gallons/year, Port Charles in Baton-Rouge, Louisiana, 2021 planning)
6.24 Calumet (Great Falls Refinery (10 to 12,000bpd, Great Falls, Montana est 2022)

6.3 CANADA

LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS & PROGRAMS
6.3.1 Canada’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard Target = 12.9% by 2030
6.3.2 British Columbia Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Target = 20% by 2030

RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS AND CASE STUDIES

6.3.3 Covenant Energy (RD/SAF. 6500bpd, 300mliters/yr, Canola, Saskatchewan, est 2023)
6.3.4 Tidewater (3000bpd w HTopsoe, Prince Georges refinery, British Columbia, est 2022+)
6.3.5 Cielo Alberta (RD, 30mgy, Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada, 2021 planning)
6.3.6 Ensyn Ontario (3mgy, Renewable Crude and Diesel from Pyrolysis, 2021 operating)
6.3.7 Ensyn Cote Du Nord Quebec (10mgy, Renewable Crude and Diesel, Pyrolysis, 2021 construction)

6.4 SOUTH AMERICA

6.4.1 PARAGUAY
Omega Green (RD/SAF, 400mgy, BSBios/Paraguay, $800million est, 2024 Startup)

6.4.3 BOLIVIA
Government/Bolivian Fiscal Oil Fields(YPFB) Partnership,
Guillermo Elder Bell refinery ($250million, 9,000bpd or 3 million barrels/yr)


6.4 ASIA

6.4.1 SINGAPORE
Neste (RD/SAF, 2020: 675 mgy or 1.3 million MT/yr, 2025 expansion to 2.7 million MT/yr)

6.4.2 INDONESIA
Pertamina Plaju refinery (RD/SAF w UOP, 307 mgy or 20,000bpd, plant oils, 2023 startup)
Cilacap Refinery (RD/SAF w UOP, 92mgy or 6,000bpd, 2022 announcement)

6.4.3 CHINA
Total (120k MT/yr, new project)
Eco Biochemical (120k MT/yr, 2021: operating)
Hunanyu (120k MT/yr, 2021: operating)
Changyou Bioenergy (200k MT/yr, 2021: operating)
Yangzou Jianyuan (100k MT/yr, 2021: operating)

 

7. FEEDSTOCKS USED IN RENEWABLE DIESEL & SAF PRODUCTION

Each feedstock section Includes an Introduction, Markets, Consumption, Outlook, and Examples in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production

7.1 First Generation Vegetable Oils
Introduction, Markets, Consumption and Outlook
Examples of Use in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production
7.1.1 Soybean Oil
7.1.2 Rapeseed Oil
7.1.3 Palm Oil
7.1.4 Canola Oil
7.1.5 Sunflower Oil

7.2 Second Generation Waste-Based F.O.G.s, Fats, Oils and Greases
7.2.1 Used Cooking Oil / Yellow Grease
7.2.2 Poultry Fat
7.2.3 Beef Tallow
7.2.4 Pork – White Grease
7.2.5 Brown Grease
7.2.6 Trap Grease

7.3 Exploration of Non-Food Sources – Third Generation Energy Crops 
7.3.1 DCO – Distiller’s Corn Oil
7.3.2 Rotational Crops: Carinata, Camelina, Pennycress
7.3.3 Tall Oils from Forestry
7.3.4 Pongamia
7.3.5 Castor
7.3.6 Tobacco Oils
7.3.7 Hemp
7.3.8 Winter Oilseeds
7.3.9 Jatropha
7.3.10 Aquatic Oils: Algae, Seaweed, Halophytes, Salicornia

7.4 Circular Feedstocks from Waste Based Forestry and Agricultural Residues
7.4.1 Wood and Forestry Residues
7.4.2 Sawmill Residues and Sawdust
7.4.3 Municipal Solid Waste
7.4.4 Bagasse
7.4.5 Corn Stover
7.4.6 Rice Husks
7.4.7 Almond and Nut Shells

 

8. TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODELS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL, SAF

8.1 Examples of: Up-Grading Next Gen Feedstocks (Wood, Ag Residues, Waste)

8.2 Fischer-Tropsch Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for Processing

8.3 Pyrolysis Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for Processing

8.4 Hydro-Thermal Liquefication Demonstration Level Producers

8.5 Technology Providers and Producers of Intermediates (Biocrude, ATJ) for Up-Grading into Renewable Diesel & Jet Fuel via Fischer-Tropsch, Pyrolysis, ATJ, and other TRL Level 5+ Players

8.6 Examples of Biocrude & Syncrude Intermediate Up-Grading to Renewable Diesel and SAF

8.6.1 Fischer-Tropsch Gasification (FT) examples from Velocys, Fulcrum, RedRock

8.6.2 Hydro-Thermal Liquefication (HTL) examples from ReadiFuels/ARA

8.6.3 ATJ Alcohol To Jet (ATJ) process examples via Dehydration, Hydrotreating, Isomerization, Refining from Lanzatech, Gevo, Byogy, Vertimass

 

 

9. SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS



The Renewable Diesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, Vol 2. study also focuses on Sustainable Aviation Fuels in detail, providing case studies of producers and the low-carbon feedstocks, technology pathways, partnerships, investors, and off-takers.

 

 

9.1 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION MARKETS

9.1.1 Global Policies and Targets – U.N. and C.O.R.S.I.A
9.1.2 Regional Aviation Policies and Targets – EU RED2
9.1.3 National Aviation Policies and Targets -US RFS, Canada CFS, C.O.R.S.I.A’s member countries & targets
9.1.4 Key Organizations in Sustainable Aviation

9.2 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION PRODUCERS, PROJECTS & VOLUMES TO 2025

9.2.1 World Energy, Paramount, 25 Million Gallons/Year in 2020
9.2.2 Neste, Porvoo, 34 Million Gallons/Year in 2020
9.2.3 Gevo, Silsbee, Texas, Demonstration Project in 2020
9.2.4 Total, La Mede, France, SAF Demonstration & Production in 2020
9.2.5 Fulcrum, Sierra, Nevada, 7 Million Gallons/Year in 2021
9.2.6 RedRock, Lakeview, Colorade, 6 Million Gallons/Year in 2021
9.2.7 Neste, Singapore & Rotterdam, 481 Million Gallons/Year in 2022-23
9.2.8 SkyNRG, Delfzijl, 33 Million Gallons/Year in 2022
9.2.9 GoSunshine, New Orleans, 29 Million Gallons/Year in 2022
9.2.10 Fulcrum, Gary, Indiana, 21 Million Gallons/Year in 2023
9.2.11 ReadiFuels, 2 Locations, 24 Million Gallons/Year in 2023
9.2.12 Preem, Gothenburg, Sweden 70 Million Gallons/Year in 2024
9.2.13 Lanzatech, Four Locations in Production, 100 Million Gallons/Year in 2024
9.2.14 Velocycs, Immingham, England, 20 Million Gallons/Year in 2025

 

9.3 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS

9.3.1 Sustainable Aviation Goals and Targets by Country, Organization, Timeline
9.3.2 Sustainable Aviation Fuel Demand Forecast From 2015 to 2055 based on IEA, ICAO
9.3.3 Estimated EU Bio-Based Aviation Fuel Production 2017-2025 at 15% Blend Rates
9.3.4 Investment Risk Outlook & Volume of Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2015 to 2030 to 2050
9.3.5 De-Risking Start Up CAPEX & OPEX Costs With Low Cost Feedstocks & Long-Term Partnerships

 

10. RENEWABLE DIESEL OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS TO 2030

10.1 Short Term Forecasts to 2022, Reviews and Outlook
10.2 Medium Term Forecasts to 2025, Reviews and Outlook
10.3 Long term Forecasts to 2030, Reviews and Outlook

Table of Figures, Charts and Graphs

CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL MARKET DEMAND AND PRODUCTION OF RENEWABLE DIESEL

Roadmap: Renewable Diesel and SAF Demand Projections 2015-2055 in MT

Map of Global Renewable Diesel Production By Producer, Region, Location and Capacity 2021

Chart: Global Renewable Diesel Producer Comparison by Production Volumes Top 10 Producers 2021

Table: Current Global Renewable Diesel Producer by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and Location, 2021

Table: Planned Global Renewable Diesel Expansion by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and Location, 2021

Table: New Renewable Diesel Plants Under Construction by Capacity, MT, Gallons, Location, 2011

 

EUROPE

EU Renewable Energy (RED2) Directives and Targets 2020 to 2030, by Country

EU Renewable Diesel Production Volumes Based on COP21

Targets for GHG Emission Savings to 2030 Pie Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel Production by Project, Million Liters Per Year Capacity

Time Series Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production and Production Capacity 2011-2020

Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel Production By Country 2009-2019, Netherlands, Finland, Italy, France

Chart: Worldwide Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production Capacity and Biodiesel Market Share 2007-2025

Producer Case Study: Neste, Finland, Renewable Diesel Plant in Porvoo, Feedstocks, Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion

Producer Case Study: Neste, Porvoo Refinery Technology Overview of Hydrogen Production Plant and Hydrocracker Units at Porvoo, Including Technology Types, Suppliers, Partners, CAPEX and Capacity

Producer Case Study: UPM, Finland, Lappeenranta Refinery, Feedstocks from Tall Oil and Wood Residues, Hydrotreating and Distillation Technology for Tall Oil, Capacity, Start Up Date, Offtake

Producer Case Study: ENi, Italy, Renewable Diesel Plant in Venice, Feedstock Use in MT, UOP/ENI Technology, Capacity, Co Products (Green Diesel, Naptha, LPT, Jet Fuel), Startup, Expansion Plans

Producer Case Study: ENi, Italy, Renewable Diesel Plant in Gela, Feedstock Use in MT, UOP/Eni Technology, Capacity, Co Products (Green Diesel, Naptha, LPT, Jet Fuel), Startup, Expansion Plans

Producer Case Study: Total, France, Renewable Diesel Plant in La Mede, Feedstock Use by Type in MT, Technology Partners, Capacity and Expansion, Co Products, Startup Date, Expansion Plans

Table: EU RED2 & CORSIA Analysis of Renewable Diesel Technologies by Type, Feedstocks Used, GHG Emissions Score/Rating % for Each Technology and Feedstock (FT, HVO, HEFA, SIP, ATJ)

EU Forecast 2021-2030: RED2 Targets for Renewable Diesel & Aviation Fuel Production in MT by Maximum Shares from 1st Gen, 2nd Gen, and Advanced Fuels/Feedstocks (Annexes IX Part A & B)

 

 

CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL MARKETS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL FUELS PRODUCTION & CO-PROCESSING USA

USA Biomass-Based Biodiesel Targets, EPA Final Renewable Fuel Volume Requirements in Billion Gallons, by Year, for Biomass Based Diesel, Advanced Biofuels, and Renewable Fuel

Table: USA Biomass Based Diesel Growth Over Time, Million Gallons/Yr, Final Volume Standards

Chart: US Renewable Diesel Production Volumes in Million Gallons Per Year 2010-2020

Table: Current U.S. Renewable Diesel Producers by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and Location, 2021

Producer Case Study: Diamond Green Diesel, Renewable Diesel Plant in Louisiana, Feedstocks, Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake Partners

Producer Case Study: REG, Renewable Diesel Plant in Louisiana, Feedstocks, Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake Partners

Producer Case Study: World Energy (AltAir), Biojet & Renewable Diesel Plant in California,, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Production Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake Partners

 

CALIFORNIA

Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel Growth Acceleration from 2012-2021, in Million Gallons

Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel Supply from 2012-2021, in Million Gallons

Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel & Biodiesel Production Volumes 2011-2021, Million Gallons

Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Production 2011-2019 by Crops and Residues Used w Credits (in Million MT) for Soy, Canola, Fish Oil, Distillers Corn Oil, Tallow, Used Cooking Oil

Chart: California Annual Diesel Demand Forecast: 2020-2030 by Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel, Petroleum Diesel, in Millions of Gallons, Based on Governor Newsom’s New Targets

 

CANADA

Canada’s Renewable Diesel Mandates by Target Volumes and GHG Reduction in Carbon Intensity

Canada’s Renewable Diesel Mandates, By Province, British Colombia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, by Target Volumes and GHG Reduction in Carbon Intensity

Canada’s Clean Fuel Standard, Current Timeline of Regulatory Plans from 2018-2023 by Liquid Fuel Stream, Solid and Gaseus Fuel Stream Requirements, LCA Model, and Carbon Intensity Values

Chart: Canada’s Renewable Diesel & Biodiesel Consumption 2011-2021, in Million Metric Tons Year

Chart: Consumption of Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel in Canada By Feedstock, 2010-2019, in Million Liters and GHG % Avoided in Mt CO2 by: Canola, Soy, Tallow, Yellow Grease, Palm, Rapeseed

 

NEXT GENERATION FEEDSTOCKS AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR CO-PROCESSING

Table: What’s Next in Renewable Diesel and Jet Fuel Blending? HEFA & FT Process Technologies For Sustainable Feedstocks by Pathway, Process, Producers, Date of Approval by Tech, and Blending Limit

Graph: Global Feedstocks for Renewable Diesel and Sustainable Jet Fuel Co-Processing, including Residues, Waste, Energy Crops, MSW, Forest Residues, Agricultural Residues, Organic Waste Streams

Table: Examples of Co Processing of Syncrude/Green Crude by Company, Location, Feedstock, Conversion Pathway by HEFA & Fischer Tropsch and Annual Capacity by Producer in Million Gal/Yr

Graph: Example of Refinery Co-Processing Crude Oil and Renewable Green Crude Oil into Renewable Diesel and Gasoline, Leveraging Existing Refinery Infrastructure for CAPEX, OPEX Advantages

Graph: Example of Production of Green/Syncrude for Co-Processing, by Feedstock Pre-Treatment, Fischer-Tropch Gasification of Sustainable Feedstocks to Syncrude, and Co-Processing Syncrude via Hydtrotreating and Hydro-Cracking into Renewable Diesel, Sustainable Aviation Fuel, and Co-products

Graphs: Examples of Co-Processing Green/Syncrude by Velosys, Ensyn, ARA Chevron Lummus Global

 

SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS

Chart: Commercial Flights Operated on Sustainable Aviation Fuel Since 2008, in Hundred Thousands

Map: Regular Commercial Sustainable Aviation Fuel Flights Taking Off From 5 Airports

Table: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements by Producer, Partner, Airline, Agreement, Volumes

Table: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Agreements by Producer, Purchaser, Offtake Production per Year, Date

Graph: Early Stage SAF Partnership Initiatives by Stakeholder Group, Projects Producers, Airlines

SAF Case Study: World Energy/Alt-Air and United Airlines Commercial Partnership by Date, Million Gallons, Blend Ratio, CO2 Reduction, Thousands of Flights, Job Creation

SAF Case Study: Neste-Lufthansa Commercial Partnership by Date, Million Gallons, Blend Ratio, CO2 Reduction, Thousands of Flights

SAF Case Study: Neste Air Cooperation With Leading Aviation Brands, including Lufthansa, Boeing, KLM, SAS, American Airlines, Alaska Airlines, UPS, DFW & SFO Airports, Air BP

SAF Case Study: Gevo Commercial Partnerships by Date, Million Gallons, Production Facilities for IsoButanol and ATJ, and Jet Fuel Production Partnerships for Alaska Airlines and Lufthansa Airlines

SAF Case Study: Fulcrum Commercial Partnerships With United Airlines and BP Air by Date, Feedstock Supply Chain, Biocrude Production, Co-Processing, and Offtake Agreement with BP Air

SAF Case Study: Red Rock Biofuels Supply Chain Partnerships With TSS, Flour, PPE, Wood Group, Velocys, Haldor Topsoe, TCG, and Ten Year Offtake Agreements with Southwest Airways and FedEx

SAF Case Study: Licella SAFProduction Partnerships and Offtake for Quantas and Virgin Australia

 

BIOFUELS FOR SHIPPING – IMO 2020 OPPORTUNITIES FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL

Chart: IMO Analysis of Nitrogen (Nox) Emission Limits in NoX Emission Control Areas, Tiers 1-III Chart: IMO Targets Requiring Shipping to Cut GHG CO2 Emissions 50% by 2050 in Tons, 2008 & 2050

Chart: IMO Fuels Measured by Type of Fuel (Diesel, Gas Oil, Light Fuel Oil, Heavy Fuel Oil, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Liquified Natural Gas, Methanol and Ethanol), and Carbon Content (t-Co2/t-Fuel)

Table: Benefits of Drop In Renewable Diesel Fuels Supplies vs LNG Supplies and Scrubbers to Meet IMO Shipping Regulations for Sox, Nox, and CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Chart: Market Projections for Marine Fuels Volumes Comparing Biofuels to LNG by MT/yr, 2020-2030

 

REVIEW OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC STUDIES (CAPEX & OPEX ESTIMATES) OF RENEWABLE DIESEL AND SAF TECHNOLOGIES , FEEDSTOCKS

Table: OPEX / Production Costs of SAF Fuels by Technology (HEFA, FT, ATJ) and Feedstock (Used Cooking Oil, Yellow Grease, Tallow, Soy Oil, Palm Oil, Camelina Oil, Corn Stover, Switch Grass, Wood, Sugarcane, Lignocellulose) Cost of Production in $ per Liter – Minimum Selling Price

Table: OPEX Production Costs of Sustainable Aviation Fuels from Various Pathways, including ATJ (Ethanol, n-Butanol, Iso-Butanol, Methanol), OTJ (Pyrolysis, CH, HRJ of Bio-Crude Oils), GTJ (FT, CTL, CBTL, Gas Fermentation) of Syngas to Hydrocarbons and Ethanol, STJ (Catalytic Conversion of Sugars via ARP and HMF Pathways) of Syngas to Ethanol, DMF and HMF, Fatty Acids and Farnesene – Intermediate Costs in $/Gallon and Final Jet Fuel Costs/OPEX in $/Gallon

Table: OPEX Cost of SAF by Technology Pathways – HDO of Camelina, Gasification-FT (Corn Stover, Switch Grass, Algae), HDO and Advanced Fermentation (Pongamia, Sugarcane Molasses, Alga, Corn Grain, Switchgrass) and HDO (Wasted Oil, Tallow, Soybean Oil) – Prices in US $/Liter

 

FEEDSTOCK MARKETS, PRODUCTION AND FORECASTS

Short Term Outlook – Where Will We Get the Feedstocks and The Fuels?

Illustration of Harvest of Oilseeds by Continent, Estimated, in Million Tons – North America, S. America, Europe, Africa, Asia

Short Term Outlook: Current Production of Oilseed Crops, Total and Worldwide, Estimated in Million Tons, 2003-2019 by Feedstock Type (Palm, Sunflower, Rapeseed, Soybeans) for Total Global Oilseed Production

Mid Term Outlook – Food Production Increases With World Population, Supply of Grain and Vegetable Oils, Estimated by Continent in KG Per Capita, North America, S. America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Oceania

LongTerm Outlook: Oilseed Harvests Growing Steadily, Harvests of Oilseeds by Continent, Estimated in Million Tons for North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia and Oceana

 

REVIEW OF FORECASTS – SHORT TERM, MID TERM, AND LONG-TERM OUTLOOKS

Short Term Outlook: Supply and Demand Imbalances Between Advanced Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel

Mandates for Low Carbon Markets in U.S. & E.U., Canada: Market Pull for Lower Cost Suppliers / Exporters in Emerging Markets

Medium Term Outlook: Transition from 2020 Volumetric Targets to 2030 LCFS and COP21 GHG Targets Increases Market Demand for Several Lower-Carbon Fuels, Feedstocks, Process Technologies

Long Term Outlook: Commercialization of (1) Low Carbon Feedstocks and (2) Process Technologies to Meet (3) Estimated Low-Carbon Renewable Diesel and SAF Demands From 2030 to 2050

 



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About The Author
Will Thurmond is the CEO of Emerging Markets Online and has been consulting utilities, oil and gas companies, and biofuels organizations for 25+ yrs. He has published several studies on biofuels (Biodiesel 2020, in 2008), (Algae 2020, in 2012), (Drop-In Fuels 2020, in 2014), (Renewable Diesel 2030, in 2018), (Renewable DIesel & Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2030, in 2021).Mr Thurmond is the lead consultant for Emerging Markets Online’s consulting, market research, competitive intelligence, and forecasting activities for feedstocks, markets, and technologies.  You can reach him via email info(at)emerging-markets.com or tel 713 429 4905 (Houston).

 

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