Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 Study
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Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 provides detailed case studies and analysis of the key producers and developers participating in more than 29 renewable diesel projects in the USA, 5 in Canada, 18 in Europe, 11 in Asia, and 2 in South America (ps chapters 4-6, Producers, for a comprehensive list of renewable diesel refineries, production capacities, locations, feedstocks, partnerships, and timelines). One key trend of larger-scale renewable diesel retrofits of petroleum refineries is now being accompanied by the emergence of smaller scale, localized, sustainable aviation refineries. This growing trend of smaller, localized plants favors low-carbon feedstocks in geographically advantaged areas that can benefit the specialty-scale RD/SAF integrated refinery. Feed stocks such as: * forestry tree oil (St1, UPM, Neste), Another key finding in the Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 study is a growing number of companies participating in dedicated alliances and joint venture partnerships for (upstream) feedstocks and (downstream) offtake agreements. The Renewable Diesel & SAF 2030 study includes a comprehensive analysis of renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) producers, and provides a forward looking set of forecasts for market growth, feedstock initiatives, technology deployment for renewable diesel & SAF from the year 2021 to 2030.
Table of Contents
1. GLOBAL DEMAND DRIVERS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL 1.1 New GHG and Low-Carbon Fuels Regulations Bring New Opportunities 1.1.1. Clean Cities Transport Initiative Opportunities in U.S., Europe, Americas, Asia 1.1.2. Sustainable Aviation Initiatives for CORSIA (U.N.) Program 1.1.3. Sustainable Shipping Initiatives for IMO (U.N.) 2020 Regulations 1.1.4. Feedstock Opportunities to Produce Low-Carbon Fuels for Emerging Markets like California 1.2 Low Carbon Fuel Regulations Bring Disruptive Challenges, Opportunities to Producers 1.2.1 Change and Transition from 2020 Targets to 2030 COP26 GHG Targets 1.2.2 New GHG Targets Bring Opportunities for Bio/Renewable Diesel (California, EU, Canada) 1.2.3 New GHG Targets Bring Challenges to 1st Generation Biodiesel Producers (Soy, Palm) 1.2.4 New GHG Regulations Bring Opportunities to Refiners, Blenders, Obligated Parties
2. SUMMARY OF GLOBAL RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCTION 2.1 Review of Renewable Diesel and SAF Demand Projections 2.2 Analysis of Global Renewable Diesel Production by Region, Location and Capacity 2.3 Top 10 Global Renewable Diesel Producers – by Production Volumes 2.4 Existing Global Renewable Diesel Producers by Capacity, MT, Gallons, Location, 2021 2.5 Planned Global Renewable Diesel Expansions by Capacity, MT, Gallons, Location, 2021 2.6 New Renewable Diesel Plants Under Construction by Capacity, Gallons, Location, 2021
3. EUROPE: DEMAND DRIVERS 3.1 Renewable Energy (RED2) Directives and Targets 2020 to 2030, by Country 3.2 Current EU Renewable Diesel Production Based on COP21 Targets for GHG to 2030 3.3 Market Size and Share of European Renewable Diesel Production by Project 3.4 Rapid Expansion of Europe Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production 2011-2021
4. EUROPE: CASE STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS, AND REFINERIES, BY COUNTRY 4.1 DENMARK 4.2 FINLAND 4.3 ITALY 4.4 FRANCE 4.5 SWEDEN 4.6 NETHERLANDS 4.7 UNITED KINGDOM 4.8 SPAIN 4.9 PORTUGAL 4.10 POLAND
5. USA: DEMAND DRIVERS, LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS 5.1 U.S. National Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) Program and Targets 2005-2022
6. USA: CASE STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS Each producer case study includes: Start Up Date, Location, Status, Production Capacity, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Expansion Plans 6.1 Diamond Green Diesel (Valero/Darling w UOP tech, 675mgy, Norco, Louisiana, US, 2021 Expansion) 6.3 CANADA LOW CARBON FUEL STANDARDS & PROGRAMS RENEWABLE DIESEL PRODUCERS AND CASE STUDIES 6.3.3 Covenant Energy (RD/SAF. 6500bpd, 300mliters/yr, Canola, Saskatchewan, est 2023) 6.4 SOUTH AMERICA 6.4.1 PARAGUAY 6.4.3 BOLIVIA
6.4.1 SINGAPORE 6.4.2 INDONESIA 6.4.3 CHINA
7. FEEDSTOCKS USED IN RENEWABLE DIESEL & SAF PRODUCTION Each feedstock section Includes an Introduction, Markets, Consumption, Outlook, and Examples in Renewable Diesel and SAF Production 7.1 First Generation Vegetable Oils 7.2 Second Generation Waste-Based F.O.G.s, Fats, Oils and Greases 7.3 Exploration of Non-Food Sources – Third Generation Energy Crops 7.4 Circular Feedstocks from Waste Based Forestry and Agricultural Residues
8. TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODELS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL, SAF 8.1 Examples of: Up-Grading Next Gen Feedstocks (Wood, Ag Residues, Waste) 8.2 Fischer-Tropsch Commercial Level Producers of Bio-Crude/Syncrude Intermediates for Processing 8.6.1 Fischer-Tropsch Gasification (FT) examples from Velocys, Fulcrum, RedRock 8.6.2 Hydro-Thermal Liquefication (HTL) examples from ReadiFuels/ARA 8.6.3 ATJ Alcohol To Jet (ATJ) process examples via Dehydration, Hydrotreating, Isomerization, Refining from Lanzatech, Gevo, Byogy, Vertimass
9. SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS
9.1 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION MARKETS 9.2 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION PRODUCERS, PROJECTS & VOLUMES TO 2025
9.3 SUSTAINABLE AVIATION OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS
10. RENEWABLE DIESEL OUTLOOK AND FORECASTS TO 2030 Table of Figures, Charts and Graphs CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL MARKET DEMAND AND PRODUCTION OF RENEWABLE DIESEL Roadmap: Renewable Diesel and SAF Demand Projections 2015-2055 in MT Map of Global Renewable Diesel Production By Producer, Region, Location and Capacity 2021 Chart: Global Renewable Diesel Producer Comparison by Production Volumes Top 10 Producers 2021 Table: Current Global Renewable Diesel Producer by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and Location, 2021 Table: Planned Global Renewable Diesel Expansion by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and Location, 2021 Table: New Renewable Diesel Plants Under Construction by Capacity, MT, Gallons, Location, 2011
EUROPE EU Renewable Energy (RED2) Directives and Targets 2020 to 2030, by Country EU Renewable Diesel Production Volumes Based on COP21 Targets for GHG Emission Savings to 2030 Pie Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel Production by Project, Million Liters Per Year Capacity Time Series Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production and Production Capacity 2011-2020 Chart: Europe Renewable Diesel Production By Country 2009-2019, Netherlands, Finland, Italy, France Chart: Worldwide Renewable Diesel (HVO) Production Capacity and Biodiesel Market Share 2007-2025 Producer Case Study: Neste, Finland, Renewable Diesel Plant in Porvoo, Feedstocks, Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Producer Case Study: Neste, Porvoo Refinery Technology Overview of Hydrogen Production Plant and Hydrocracker Units at Porvoo, Including Technology Types, Suppliers, Partners, CAPEX and Capacity Producer Case Study: UPM, Finland, Lappeenranta Refinery, Feedstocks from Tall Oil and Wood Residues, Hydrotreating and Distillation Technology for Tall Oil, Capacity, Start Up Date, Offtake Producer Case Study: ENi, Italy, Renewable Diesel Plant in Venice, Feedstock Use in MT, UOP/ENI Technology, Capacity, Co Products (Green Diesel, Naptha, LPT, Jet Fuel), Startup, Expansion Plans Producer Case Study: ENi, Italy, Renewable Diesel Plant in Gela, Feedstock Use in MT, UOP/Eni Technology, Capacity, Co Products (Green Diesel, Naptha, LPT, Jet Fuel), Startup, Expansion Plans Producer Case Study: Total, France, Renewable Diesel Plant in La Mede, Feedstock Use by Type in MT, Technology Partners, Capacity and Expansion, Co Products, Startup Date, Expansion Plans Table: EU RED2 & CORSIA Analysis of Renewable Diesel Technologies by Type, Feedstocks Used, GHG Emissions Score/Rating % for Each Technology and Feedstock (FT, HVO, HEFA, SIP, ATJ) EU Forecast 2021-2030: RED2 Targets for Renewable Diesel & Aviation Fuel Production in MT by Maximum Shares from 1st Gen, 2nd Gen, and Advanced Fuels/Feedstocks (Annexes IX Part A & B)
CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL MARKETS FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL FUELS PRODUCTION & CO-PROCESSING USA USA Biomass-Based Biodiesel Targets, EPA Final Renewable Fuel Volume Requirements in Billion Gallons, by Year, for Biomass Based Diesel, Advanced Biofuels, and Renewable Fuel Table: USA Biomass Based Diesel Growth Over Time, Million Gallons/Yr, Final Volume Standards Chart: US Renewable Diesel Production Volumes in Million Gallons Per Year 2010-2020 Table: Current U.S. Renewable Diesel Producers by Capacity, MT, Gallons, and Location, 2021 Producer Case Study: Diamond Green Diesel, Renewable Diesel Plant in Louisiana, Feedstocks, Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake Partners Producer Case Study: REG, Renewable Diesel Plant in Louisiana, Feedstocks, Technology, Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake Partners Producer Case Study: World Energy (AltAir), Biojet & Renewable Diesel Plant in California,, Feedstocks, Technology Partners, Production Capacity, Co Products, Startup, Expansion Plans, Offtake Partners
CALIFORNIA Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel Growth Acceleration from 2012-2021, in Million Gallons Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel Supply from 2012-2021, in Million Gallons Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel & Biodiesel Production Volumes 2011-2021, Million Gallons Chart: California LCFS Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel Production 2011-2019 by Crops and Residues Used w Credits (in Million MT) for Soy, Canola, Fish Oil, Distillers Corn Oil, Tallow, Used Cooking Oil Chart: California Annual Diesel Demand Forecast: 2020-2030 by Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel, Petroleum Diesel, in Millions of Gallons, Based on Governor Newsom’s New Targets
CANADA Canada’s Renewable Diesel Mandates by Target Volumes and GHG Reduction in Carbon Intensity Canada’s Renewable Diesel Mandates, By Province, British Colombia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, by Target Volumes and GHG Reduction in Carbon Intensity Canada’s Clean Fuel Standard, Current Timeline of Regulatory Plans from 2018-2023 by Liquid Fuel Stream, Solid and Gaseus Fuel Stream Requirements, LCA Model, and Carbon Intensity Values Chart: Canada’s Renewable Diesel & Biodiesel Consumption 2011-2021, in Million Metric Tons Year Chart: Consumption of Renewable Diesel and Biodiesel in Canada By Feedstock, 2010-2019, in Million Liters and GHG % Avoided in Mt CO2 by: Canola, Soy, Tallow, Yellow Grease, Palm, Rapeseed
NEXT GENERATION FEEDSTOCKS AND TECHNOLOGIES FOR CO-PROCESSING Table: What’s Next in Renewable Diesel and Jet Fuel Blending? HEFA & FT Process Technologies For Sustainable Feedstocks by Pathway, Process, Producers, Date of Approval by Tech, and Blending Limit Graph: Global Feedstocks for Renewable Diesel and Sustainable Jet Fuel Co-Processing, including Residues, Waste, Energy Crops, MSW, Forest Residues, Agricultural Residues, Organic Waste Streams Table: Examples of Co Processing of Syncrude/Green Crude by Company, Location, Feedstock, Conversion Pathway by HEFA & Fischer Tropsch and Annual Capacity by Producer in Million Gal/Yr Graph: Example of Refinery Co-Processing Crude Oil and Renewable Green Crude Oil into Renewable Diesel and Gasoline, Leveraging Existing Refinery Infrastructure for CAPEX, OPEX Advantages Graph: Example of Production of Green/Syncrude for Co-Processing, by Feedstock Pre-Treatment, Fischer-Tropch Gasification of Sustainable Feedstocks to Syncrude, and Co-Processing Syncrude via Hydtrotreating and Hydro-Cracking into Renewable Diesel, Sustainable Aviation Fuel, and Co-products Graphs: Examples of Co-Processing Green/Syncrude by Velosys, Ensyn, ARA Chevron Lummus Global
SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELS Chart: Commercial Flights Operated on Sustainable Aviation Fuel Since 2008, in Hundred Thousands Map: Regular Commercial Sustainable Aviation Fuel Flights Taking Off From 5 Airports Table: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Offtake Agreements by Producer, Partner, Airline, Agreement, Volumes Table: Sustainable Aviation Fuel Agreements by Producer, Purchaser, Offtake Production per Year, Date Graph: Early Stage SAF Partnership Initiatives by Stakeholder Group, Projects Producers, Airlines SAF Case Study: World Energy/Alt-Air and United Airlines Commercial Partnership by Date, Million Gallons, Blend Ratio, CO2 Reduction, Thousands of Flights, Job Creation SAF Case Study: Neste-Lufthansa Commercial Partnership by Date, Million Gallons, Blend Ratio, CO2 Reduction, Thousands of Flights SAF Case Study: Neste Air Cooperation With Leading Aviation Brands, including Lufthansa, Boeing, KLM, SAS, American Airlines, Alaska Airlines, UPS, DFW & SFO Airports, Air BP SAF Case Study: Gevo Commercial Partnerships by Date, Million Gallons, Production Facilities for IsoButanol and ATJ, and Jet Fuel Production Partnerships for Alaska Airlines and Lufthansa Airlines SAF Case Study: Fulcrum Commercial Partnerships With United Airlines and BP Air by Date, Feedstock Supply Chain, Biocrude Production, Co-Processing, and Offtake Agreement with BP Air SAF Case Study: Red Rock Biofuels Supply Chain Partnerships With TSS, Flour, PPE, Wood Group, Velocys, Haldor Topsoe, TCG, and Ten Year Offtake Agreements with Southwest Airways and FedEx SAF Case Study: Licella SAFProduction Partnerships and Offtake for Quantas and Virgin Australia
BIOFUELS FOR SHIPPING – IMO 2020 OPPORTUNITIES FOR RENEWABLE DIESEL Chart: IMO Analysis of Nitrogen (Nox) Emission Limits in NoX Emission Control Areas, Tiers 1-III Chart: IMO Targets Requiring Shipping to Cut GHG CO2 Emissions 50% by 2050 in Tons, 2008 & 2050 Chart: IMO Fuels Measured by Type of Fuel (Diesel, Gas Oil, Light Fuel Oil, Heavy Fuel Oil, Liquefied Petroleum Gas, Liquified Natural Gas, Methanol and Ethanol), and Carbon Content (t-Co2/t-Fuel) Table: Benefits of Drop In Renewable Diesel Fuels Supplies vs LNG Supplies and Scrubbers to Meet IMO Shipping Regulations for Sox, Nox, and CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Chart: Market Projections for Marine Fuels Volumes Comparing Biofuels to LNG by MT/yr, 2020-2030
REVIEW OF TECHNO-ECONOMIC STUDIES (CAPEX & OPEX ESTIMATES) OF RENEWABLE DIESEL AND SAF TECHNOLOGIES , FEEDSTOCKS Table: OPEX / Production Costs of SAF Fuels by Technology (HEFA, FT, ATJ) and Feedstock (Used Cooking Oil, Yellow Grease, Tallow, Soy Oil, Palm Oil, Camelina Oil, Corn Stover, Switch Grass, Wood, Sugarcane, Lignocellulose) Cost of Production in $ per Liter – Minimum Selling Price Table: OPEX Production Costs of Sustainable Aviation Fuels from Various Pathways, including ATJ (Ethanol, n-Butanol, Iso-Butanol, Methanol), OTJ (Pyrolysis, CH, HRJ of Bio-Crude Oils), GTJ (FT, CTL, CBTL, Gas Fermentation) of Syngas to Hydrocarbons and Ethanol, STJ (Catalytic Conversion of Sugars via ARP and HMF Pathways) of Syngas to Ethanol, DMF and HMF, Fatty Acids and Farnesene – Intermediate Costs in $/Gallon and Final Jet Fuel Costs/OPEX in $/Gallon Table: OPEX Cost of SAF by Technology Pathways – HDO of Camelina, Gasification-FT (Corn Stover, Switch Grass, Algae), HDO and Advanced Fermentation (Pongamia, Sugarcane Molasses, Alga, Corn Grain, Switchgrass) and HDO (Wasted Oil, Tallow, Soybean Oil) – Prices in US $/Liter
FEEDSTOCK MARKETS, PRODUCTION AND FORECASTS Short Term Outlook – Where Will We Get the Feedstocks and The Fuels? Illustration of Harvest of Oilseeds by Continent, Estimated, in Million Tons – North America, S. America, Europe, Africa, Asia Short Term Outlook: Current Production of Oilseed Crops, Total and Worldwide, Estimated in Million Tons, 2003-2019 by Feedstock Type (Palm, Sunflower, Rapeseed, Soybeans) for Total Global Oilseed Production Mid Term Outlook – Food Production Increases With World Population, Supply of Grain and Vegetable Oils, Estimated by Continent in KG Per Capita, North America, S. America, Europe, Africa, Asia, Oceania LongTerm Outlook: Oilseed Harvests Growing Steadily, Harvests of Oilseeds by Continent, Estimated in Million Tons for North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia and Oceana
REVIEW OF FORECASTS – SHORT TERM, MID TERM, AND LONG-TERM OUTLOOKS Short Term Outlook: Supply and Demand Imbalances Between Advanced Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Mandates for Low Carbon Markets in U.S. & E.U., Canada: Market Pull for Lower Cost Suppliers / Exporters in Emerging Markets Medium Term Outlook: Transition from 2020 Volumetric Targets to 2030 LCFS and COP21 GHG Targets Increases Market Demand for Several Lower-Carbon Fuels, Feedstocks, Process Technologies Long Term Outlook: Commercialization of (1) Low Carbon Feedstocks and (2) Process Technologies to Meet (3) Estimated Low-Carbon Renewable Diesel and SAF Demands From 2030 to 2050
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